DEHRADUN: As Manish Sisodia on Monday flagged off 70 vans to Uttarakhand with five AAP workers each -- outlining the efforts of the party to make inroads in the hill state -- trends of over two decades suggest a bumpy ride full of obstacles ahead of them.
Political commentators, experts and those who participated in statehood movement of Uttarakhand say that the state tends to favour national parties over regional parties.
Avtar Singh Rawat (79), senior advocate from the Supreme Court and Uttarakhand High Court who participated actively in statehood agitation says, "The people of Uttarakhand have a history of strong affiliation to the Centre. This may be because they do not think much of regional identity like Southern parts of our country. Though statehood agitation was one great movement with large public participation, people of Uttarakhand prefer more of an inclusive nationalist view than exclusive regionalism. Uttarakhand really can be referred to as graveyard of the regional parties."
As Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) senior leader and deputy chief minister of Delhi Sisodia earlier this week launched a mass outreach campaign titled 'Uttarakhand me bhi Kejriwal (Kejriwal in Uttarakhand too)' to prepare for the 2022 assembly polls, experts say that two main political stakeholders in the state -- BJP and Congress -- need to watch out. The two giants of Indian politics have mostly held power in the state since its formation in November 2000 after bifurcation of erstwhile Uttar Pradesh.
Jay Singh Rawat, Dehradun based political analyst said, "The AAP seems serious about making inroads in Uttarakhand in upcoming state assembly elections. The BJP and Congress should watch out as these are the parties who have had monopoly since the formation of the state."
Sisodia had already visited the Uttarakhand two times in December 2020, promising power, corruption eradication and better health and education facilities.
Uttarakhand Kranti Dal which was formed in 1979 with an objective of separate state for hilly areas has lost the support of the very people it fought for. In first state assembly elections in 2002, the party got 4 seats out of total 70 followed by 3 in 2007 elections and just 1 in 2012. In 2017 the party was electorally wiped out.
Samajwadi Party, Bahujan Samaj Party and a few others are there with nothing much to do.
AAP trying to shake things up, with aggressive online and offline activities. In one of his recent visits to the state, Sisodia challenged the Bhartiya Janta Party government to list even one good thing they have done for the development.
Dinesh Mansera, a political analyst based in Haldwani in Nainital district points out that AAP comes fully prepared. Sisodia who visited once in Kumaon and in Garhwal division of the state separately has done more than making a point.
"They (AAP leaders) know who they are dealing with in Uttarakhand. Sisodia busted Kumaon and then visited Garhwal in his two visits. He made a statement to people and balanced the rivalry angle between the two regions. The party also attacks the Congress and the BJP simultaneously projecting itself as a viable third option," adds Mansera.
Sisodia also organized a talk titled 'Devbhoomi ki Baat, Manish Sisodia ke Sath' talking to people and communicating the party's plans for the development of the state.
Doing everything symbolically right from attending Ganga Arti at Har ki Pairi in Haridwar to promising 'Raam Rajya' instead of 'Sting Rajya', AAP is playing every card.
Rumours say the party is considering a face for CM candidate which will be respected across sections. Recently, former Uttarakhand state election commissioner Suvardhan Shah and former inspector general (IG) Uttarakhand police, Anantram Chauhan, joined the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) in presence of Delhi chief minister Arvind Kejriwal and AAP’s Uttarakhand in-charge Dinesh Mohaniya in Delhi.
Despite all guns blazing, sceptics say that the party should not be delusional and be careful when it comes to balancing the equation of 'Pahari' and 'Non-Pahari' which politically translates to 'Insider' and 'Outsider' respectively.
"AAP's party in charge is not from Uttarakhand, the state president of the party is from Udham Singh Nagar, a plain district. The party leaders should be careful as the BJP and Congress both will play this insider-outsider card which will not work in favour of AAP," said an analyst who was associated with the party in 2014 general elections.
Interestingly, out of total 70 assbembly constituencies, 34 are in plain areas of the state making the game even for the party if it plays it right.
Yogesh Kumar, Dehradun based analyst says, "Uttarakhand is a hill state and a lot of political manoeuvring requires balancing the hills and plains which is a tight rope walk which I take that the party understands. They have chosen their state president from Udham Singh Nagar which is a plain district and they will sure choose the CM candidate from the hills which perfectly balances it out. Besides the party has a large number of migrants from the hills in Delhi ready to help in the ground using their Uttarakhand connection."
Choosing to ignore experts and their opponents playing them down calling AAP a non-factor, state leaders are more than hopeful.
SS Kaler, president of Uttarakhand Aam Admi Party unit said, "We will make it in 2022 state assembly elections. People are listening to us and state government is not able to accept our leaders challenge for debate. They are too afraid to admit that nothing significant has been done for the people of Uttarakhand but we will change that."
The vans launched on Monday are slated to travel to each of the 70 constituencies of the hill state and AAP members will hold a total of 6,500 public meetings in the next 45 days with a target to add one lakh new party members in Uttarakhand. AAP has also launched party membership earlier with numbers now 'exponentially growing', claimed the party leaders.
However, both the Congress and the BJP dismiss AAP as non-factor.
Bansidhar Bhagat, state president of the BJP said, "AAP leaders are delusional as people clearly see what we have done for the state under leadership of our honourable Prime Minister. The people will give their mandate to us and AAP will be disappointed like 2014 general elections."
Sumit Hridayesh, a member of All India Congress Committee from Haldwani of Uttarakhand also dismissed AAP as a non-player.
"BJP government is corrupt and has done nothing for the people of the state. People can vote Congress in 2022 and AAP is not even in the scene," said Hridayesh.
After 2014 general elections, it will be the first time the party will contest elections in the hill state. The party fielded candidates on all five Lok Sabha constituencies but failed to win any.
Following the electoral disaster after 2014, the party decided not to contest 2017 state assembly elections in which BJP scored a landslide victory. In 2018, it fielded a transgender candidate Rajni Rawat for the mayoral post of Dehradun who stood a distant third behind BJP and Congress.