VISAKHAPATNAM: Farmers in Andhra Pradesh are likely to face increased stress in the coming months due to the possible onset of El Niño conditions coincides with rising geopolitical tensions in West Asia, creating a dual challenge for agriculture.
Ch Praveen Kumar, Research Fellow at the Agro-Economic Research Centre, Andhra University, noted that while the climate phenomenon threatens crop output through irregular rainfall, global conflicts are pushing up input costs and disrupting supply chains, placing additional pressure on farm incomes.
El Niño, which refers to the periodic warming of surface waters in the Pacific Ocean, is typically associated with below-normal and uneven monsoon rainfall in India. He observed that current forecasts indicate the possibility of delayed onset of rains and extended dry spells, which could disrupt the Kharif season.
Given that a significant portion of agriculture in the country remains dependent on rainfall, such deviations may lead to reduced sowing and lower productivity.
Within Andhra Pradesh, the impact is expected to vary across regions.
The drought-prone Rayalaseema region may experience pronounced moisture stress, while coastal districts dependent on canal irrigation could be affected by reduced reservoir inflows.
These developments may influence cropping decisions and acreage during the ensuing Kharif season, Praveen Kumar said.
Expert stresses domestic fertiliser production
At the same time, geopolitical tensions involving the US, Israel and Iran are contributing to disruptions in global supply chains. He pointed out that India’s dependence on imported fertilisers and related inputs exposes the sector to fluctuations in international prices and availability.
“As a result, farmers are facing higher input costs, including fertilisers, fuel, and transportation, along with uncertainty over timely supply. The combined effect of these factors is likely to affect farm profitability, particularly if traditional cropping patterns are continued without adjustment.
Andhra Pradesh’s integration with global markets, especially in rice exports and aquaculture, may further compound the situation due to increased logistics costs and market uncertainties,” he opined.
Referring to policy responses, he noted that advisories issued to farmers such as shifting to short-duration and drought-resistant crops, reducing dependence on water-intensive paddy, and adopting water-conservation practices are necessary under the circumstances. However, he indicated that these measures also reflect broader structural challenges within the agricultural system. He identified continued reliance on imported inputs, persistence of water-intensive cropping patterns, and dependence on monsoon rainfall as key vulnerabilities.
“Despite ongoing policy emphasis on diversification and sustainability, progress in these areas has been gradual,” he noted.
At the same time, he suggested that the present situation offers an opportunity to strengthen long-term resilience.
Measures such as promoting natural farming, encouraging crop diversification towards millets, pulses, and oilseeds, and expanding micro-irrigation systems could help mitigate risks associated with both climate variability and global market disruptions. He emphasised the need for a shift in approach from reactive measures to forward-looking risk management.
“Strengthening domestic fertiliser production, diversifying import sources, and aligning procurement policies with ecological considerations are identified as important steps. Farm-level advisories must be supported by institutional mechanisms, including infrastructure, access to markets, and policy incentives, to ensure effective implementation,” he suggested.