PATNA: As campaigning intensifies for the Bankipur Assembly by-election, the contest is increasingly being seen as a direct fight between the BJP and the Jan Suraaj Party (JSP), with political observers and voters offering differing views on the outcome.
Outside a grocery shop in Mandiri, trader Sudhir Kumar expressed confidence in the BJP's prospects. “The pitch is already set. What remains to be seen is the batting and the bowling, and the BJP has placed its fielders well. In Bankipur, only the result is left now. Jan Suraaj seems to have no batsmen, while the BJP has strong bowlers,” he said.
However, Madhurendra Prasad, a voter originally from Jehanabad and now settled in Bankipur, believed the constituency was witnessing a political shift. “People in Bankipur are increasingly getting Pleased with Prashant because they are not Satisfied with Sinha (BJP candidate Neeraj K. Sinha),” he said.
Many voters expect the BJP to retain the seat, but with a reduced margin compared to its victory by more than 44,000 votes in the 2025 Assembly election. Both the BJP and Jan Suraaj have stepped up campaigning across the constituency ahead of polling.
The by-election was necessitated after former MLA Nitin Nabin resigned following his election to the Rajya Sabha and his appointment as the BJP's national president. Nabin is leading the BJP's campaign in the constituency.
“For us, just as Nitin was never new, Neeraj is no longer new either. The BJP is a party that works in line with Prime Minister Narendra Modi's vision, and we trust him,” said Bhupendra Prasad and his wife, who belong to the Bhumihar community and settled in Bankipur after moving from Gaya.
“Even in Assembly elections, people here vote keeping Narendra Modi in mind,” they claimed.
Traditionally considered a BJP stronghold, Bankipur has a sizeable population of Kayastha, Bhumihar, Brahmin and Rajput voters, along with Yadavs, other OBC communities and a significant Muslim electorate.
Political observers, however, believe the entry of Jan Suraaj chief Prashant Kishor has made the contest more competitive. For Kishor, the by-election is seen as a key electoral test for his party.
“This by-election is for PK either win or go on the wane”, Ashraf, a driver, said.
Surjeet Yadav, an auto-rickshaw driver from Kidwaipuri, said the contest had effectively become a straight fight between the BJP and Jan Suraaj, with the BJP relying on its traditional upper-caste support base while Jan Suraaj seeks to make inroads into it.
Dr Rajesh Kumar, a professor at a private university near Gandhi Maidan, said voter turnout could play a crucial role. “The polling percentage may not be very high, but the BJP will look to maximise turnout among its committed supporters. The victory margin, however, could narrow because Prashant Kishor is attempting to make inroads into both the BJP's traditional upper-caste vote and sections of the RJD's Muslim-Yadav support base,” he observed.
Among first-time voters, Rupali said she and her friends found Kishor's arguments persuasive but had not made up their minds. “He explains why people should vote for him. But our parents say supporting him could indirectly benefit the RJD. We'll decide when the time comes,” she said.
The BJP has deployed senior leaders, including Nitin Nabin, Samrat Choudhary, Sanjay Saraogi, Nityanand Rai, Giriraj Singh, Manoj Tiwari, Vijay Sinha and Ram Kripal Yadav, for campaigning.
Jan Suraaj has focused its campaign on governance, law and order and recent public issues.
The by-election is being closely watched as a test of the BJP's organisational strength and traditional support base, while for Prashant Kishor it is an opportunity to establish Jan Suraaj as a credible political force in Bihar.
