BENGALURU: With the Congress giving away two coastal Lok Sabha constituencies — Uttara Kannada and Udupi-Chikmagalur — to the JD(S), as part of the seat-sharing deal, the big question is: Is the alliance handing the seats to the BJP on a platter? Statistics reveal that the JD(S) has negligible presence in these constituencies, where the BJP is a strong force. The Uttara Kannada MP is Anant Kumar Hegde, and Udupi-Chikmagalur MP is Shobha Karandlaje.
In the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, JD(S) polled 1.33 lakh, Congress candidate Prashanth Deshpande, son of minister R V Deshpande, polled about 4 lakh plus votes. BJP candidate Anant Kumar Hegde polled 5.46 lakh votes. Hegde’s winning margin of 1.4 lakh votes was higher than the JD(S) total tally of 1.33 lakh votes. The only way the JD(S) can win is if there is a complete vote transfer from Congress to Janata Dal. JD(S) man Anand Asnotikar, who lost in Karwar, said the JD(S) can win only if the Congress and JD(S) work unitedly.
In Udupi-Chikmagalur, Congress polled about 4 lakh votes and JD(S) about 1.44 lakh votes, but together, they still got less than the 5.81 lakh votes polled by BJP.Political analyst B S Murthy said, “In the case of Udupi-Chikmagalur, there is very little JD(S) presence in the four constituencies of Udupi, Kaup, Karkala and Kundapura, and any contest is possible only if the Congress is able to transfer 90 per cent of its votes to the JD(S).
The coalition has a greater vote share in Mudigere, Sringeri, Tarikere and Chikmagalur. The possibility of a coalition candidate winning is remote if the vote transfer fails. In Uttara Kannada, JD(S), which polled only 1.33 lakh votes, has to get an additional 4 lakh votes from the Congress.” Former minister M Raghupathy said, “For the JD(S), winning these seats will be difficult.’’