BENGALURU: This Independence Day, celebrations are likely to be muted. The Karnataka Covid-19 war room anticipates 20,000 to 25,000 active cases across the State by mid-August, as against an earlier projection by some experts of a whopping 2 lakh cases by then.
This data was released by the state war room. Munish Moudgil, in charge of the war room, said, “The expected active cases by August 15 is 20,000-25,000, however, it is extremely difficult to make accurate projections, particularly beyond 15-20 days, as it is dependent on the behaviour of individual citizens as well as action points the state government takes.”
Active cases are those which currently test positive and are under treatment. As of Monday, there were 3,523 active cases in Karnataka, and it is this number the Covid-19 war room anticipates going up to 25,000 by mid-August.Simply put, the number of active cases is arrived at by subtracting the sum of those discharged so far, and the total number of deaths, from the tally. The total number of those who tested positive since the first case was reported on March 8 is 9,399, and includes those who have recovered.
Moudgil said that in July, the number of active cases is expected to reach 10,000. But he pointed out that such projections are very sensitive — if the daily growth rate is 3 per cent, the tally by mid-August would be 17,000. But if growth rate is 4 per cent, the number of cases would reach 25,000 in about 50-60 days.
He said that every successful effort to reduce growth rate would exponentially reduce numbers. “But conversely, we could pay heavily for any slip-up,” he said. Preventive measures could make a huge difference too. “Citizens can make a major difference by masking up, washing hands and observing hygiene and social distancing practices,” he said.
Some of the preventive
action points are to trace all contacts of Covid patients within 24 hours and effectively quarantine them, quarantine every interstate arrival for 14 days, increase both quantity and quality of testing, besides selecting and testing vulnerable and infectious groups.