BENGALURU: In one year and sixty days from March 8, 2020, when Karnataka’s first Covid case was registered, over 18 lakh cases have been reported across the state. Countrywide, the figure stands at 2,18,92,676 (almost 2.19 crore).
The state – which recorded India’s first Covid death – has witnessed 17,804 deaths, even as it moves towards the peak of the second wave, which has been deadlier than the first.
We are not done yet as experts are issuing warnings about a third wave, likely to be deadlier than the second. It appears that there is no end to the suffering.
Karnataka is witnessing an explosion of cases and fatalities. It recorded a shocking 592 deaths for a single day on Friday, a jump from the earlier peak of 346 on May 5.
But worse may be round the corner.
When the first wave started abating in November last year, the Covid Technical Advisory Committee (TAC) advised the State Government to anticipate a second wave and be ready to manage it better than the first one.
It submitted a document on November 30, titled ‘Advisory on Recommendation and Containment Measures for Second Wave of Covid-19 in Karnataka’.
It suggested closely monitoring the seven-day average growth rate and viral reproduction number at the district and state level.
It advised strengthening of contact tracing, surveillance of influenza-like illness (ILI) and severe acute respiratory infections (SARI) and initiating long-term care facilities.
It even alerted the government to expect the second wave in the first week of January 2021, and asked the administration to maintain clinical facilities at the level of October 2020 — when the first wave was just past its peak — and be ready with adequate number of beds (including oxygen beds), ICUs and ICU-ventilators in government and private hospitals.
It advised fortnightly RT-PCR sample pool testing of all teachers, students and staff in educational institutions and anganwadis by sample pooling to avoid formation of Covid clusters.
These fell on deaf ears.
Instead, the authorities allowed processions and massive rallies, assuming the pandemic to be history – an error that is being paid by thousands of lives.
The numbers prove just how intense the second wave has been in comparison to the first.
The highest addition to the Covid tally in a single day was 10,947 on October 7, 2020 when the wave was at its worst.
In the second wave, so far, the record has been almost five times that number – 50,112 – on May 5, followed by the second highest (49,058) the very next day and 48,781 on Friday.
In deaths, too, the highest number of fatalities in a day in the first wave was 179 on September 18, 2020; while in the second wave, it was 592 on Friday, followed by 346 on May 5, and 328 on May 6.
In active cases, the first wave saw 1,20,929 as the highest number on October 10, 2020, while the second wave is seeing a high average growth rate of 6.80 per cent in active cases, with the highest of 5,36,641 reached on Friday.
The figure is poised to increase further.
Dr Vikram Siddareddy, chairman & managing director, United Hospital, Kalaburagi, says, “In the first wave, Covid was milder and we managed it. But this mutant virus (cause of the second wave) is more aggressive. We cannot predict its behaviour. In 14 days, the number of infected persons has increased over 2.25 times.”
The speed in growth of active cases is shocking: Since April 24, the active cases took just four days to go up from two lakh to three lakh; another four days to reach four lakh; and five more days to cross five lakh. And we have still not reached the peak of the second wave!
Dr Anoop Amarnath, Head, Scientific Board and Chairman-Geriatric Medicine, Manipal Hospital and member of the state’s Critical Care Support Team, says, “Right now, there is an increase in positivity rate, which is a red flag. An increase in these numbers means possibly higher fatality rate down the line.”
Karnataka’s positivity rate – number of patients testing positive per 100 tests conducted – has shot up from 4.63% on April 4 to 6.88% on Friday.
“This should be tamped down to bring the pandemic under control, or we will continue to see higher numbers. We are seeing patients suffering from mucormycosis (fungal infection) and if this gets aggravated, patients can’t cope. We need to closely monitor the patients to bring down deaths,” he says.
Dr Amarnath says a stringent “lockdown” alone will not help curb cases.
“What is needed right now is ramping up healthcare logistics, making beds, oxygen, medicines and even ICUs easily available. This is the real issue in the second wave. If this pans out well then cases can be curbed,” he adds.
Dr Shashikiran Umakanth, Medical Director, Dr TMA Pai Hospital, Udupi, says, “If the second wave reaches the peak by May-end and cases decline, it is good. But if it increases again in the rainy season, it may be a very difficult situation.”
A pandemic comes in waves. Experts say this is because of viral mutations and people becoming careless when numbers decline, allowing virus variants to take hold, often in deadlier forms.
Experts warn of a third wave some time at the end of the year, although many refrain from predicting when.
They are reminding the State Government not to repeat its folly and remain prepared for the next wave.
“The pandemic has picked up pace and has taken us all by surprise. The second wave may go down in the coming days, but the third wave is predicted to cause larger damage and we have to be better prepared,” says Dr KB Cariappa, Dean, Kodagu Institute of Medical Sciences.
Dr YS Rao, Convenor, Covid cell of Indian Medical Association, Udupi-Karavali, says that firstly, critical facilities like oxygen supply and ICU beds have to be augmented and steady supply ensured. Secondly, stricter restrictions should be implemented to reduce the infection spread.
Dr Farhan Faizal, infectious disease specialist, Kasturba Medical College, Mangaluru, adds, “How it will end, nobody knows. But with vaccines, the number of cases in ICU will reduce. For that we need more vaccines and people should follow Covid-appropriate behaviour.”
FIRST WAVE (from March 8, 2020)
SECOND WAVE (from mid-March, 2021)
Inputs from: Iffath Fathima, Vincent D’Souza, Naushad Bijapur, Karthik KK, Ramakrishna Badseshi, Marx Tejaswi, Prija GR, Prakash Samaga and K Velayudham