With a high Covid-19 test positivity rate and an alarming rise in deaths, the situation in Karnataka remains grim. State Covid Technical Advisory Committee (TAC) Chairman Dr MK Sudarshan, however, expects some stabilisation by the end of June. He attributes the high positivity rate to more focused testing. Excerpts.
What is your assessment of the current situation?
The situation is improving. If the second phase of the lockdown is implemented strictly, it will result in a good scenario by the end of June. We expect the test positivity rate to come down significantly and some stabilisation by June-end. The high test positivity rate is because of focused and targeted testing, as by and large, symptomatic, primary and household contacts are being tested now. If you do random tests, the denominator will be large and the positivity rate will be less. It is now the beginning of flattening (of the curve) because of the lockdown. More effective the lockdown, more useful it will be in containing the pandemic.
Are we conducting enough tests now?
The lockdown is in force now and people are at home. We cannot expect the same number of tests done during normal times. More focused testing is being done now. As per the Government of India guidelines, up to 30 per cent of the total can be Rapid Antigen Tests (RAT). We must do more RAT for symptomatic individuals and once they turn positive, they can be immediately put in home isolation, in Covid Care Centres (CCCs) or depending on their clinical condition at hospitals. Immediate isolation and correct treatment are possible. The CCCs have been opened in rural areas as people may not have facilities for home isolation. Lack of home isolation facilities results in spreading the infection to other family members and other villagers, as it has happened in many places. As a policy, home isolation is not allowed in villages and urban slums. That will help prevent the spread of infection in villages and urban slums.
Do you think the lockdown actually helped?
The effect of the 14-day lockdown has been fairly good. It has shown some decline in numbers in cases and test positivity rate.
The positivity rate has reduced to some extent compared to what it was before the 14-day lockdown, but it still remains high, and the number of deaths increased significantly. Why?
Deaths are still not coming down to the desired levels, because it is a cumulative effect. Whether it is a system or personal failure, delayed hospitalisation impacts recovery. People stay under home isolation and go to hospital late or find a bed late. It is very complex and multiple factors are involved. We hope it will come down in the second phase of the lockdown. Now, the rush for beds has reduced and beds are available quickly. Early and timely hospitalisation will happen and deaths are expected to come down.
How are we preparing for the third wave?
A separate committee has been announced under the leadership of Dr Devi Shetty and they are expected to guide the government on preparing for and managing the third wave.
There is a concern that it will impact children more...
That is a logical explanation given, as the vaccination is taking place for only 18 years and above. They appear vulnerable as they are not vaccinated and schools and colleges are expected to reopen.
Don’t you think the progress of the vaccination drive is too slow? Will it be possible to cover the target group before the third wave?
The issue is vaccine availability. The government is fully ready to vaccinate people, but it has to get the vaccine. It is trying its best. Global tenders have been floated, procurement orders and payments have been made to Indian companies.
Isn’t vaccine shortage a major concern as we are in the middle of a raging pandemic?
Yes, it is a serious concern and the government is doing its best to get the vaccine.
There is apprehension over the increase in black fungus cases. Are we equipped to deal with it?
There is no need to panic. It is a new phenomenon in the second wave, and it is preventable and treatable. All necessary measures are being taken, including procurement of medicines. In due course of time, the incidence of black fungus will come down. We are well equipped to handle it.