The ruling BJP’s welloiled election machinery is gearing up for the 2023 Assembly polls with a clear focus on the Old Mysuru region. Though the party emerged as a major force in the state over the last two decades, this territory has remained elusive. In the run-up to the elections, the spotlight will be on the districts around Bengaluru and Mysuru.
In many ways, the region, excluding Bengaluru, with around 60 seats of the total 224 Assembly segments is likely to decide the course of state politics even after the polls. While the rest of the state will witness a direct contest between the two national parties, Old Mysuru constituencies are certain to see a triangular fight with JDS being in a dominant position in many segments.
While winning seats in the region will be a crucial part of BJP’s strategy to return to power on its own strength and overcome the jinx of stopping just short of getting a clear majority, for the regional party, it is a fight for survival. For Congress leaders, it is the question of winning the maximum number of seats and staking a claim for the top post. It will be a real test for state Congress president DK Shivakumar’s leadership and chief ministerial ambitions, while an opportunity for Siddaramaiah to reassert his leadership after the humiliating defeat in his home constituency in the 2018 polls.
Early signs of that pitched battle are already visible. The BJP seems to be on a drive to induct leaders from other parties and perhaps continue it till the polls. In the run-up to the elections, many of its central and state leaders will focus on the Congress and JDS strongholds to create a conducive atmosphere and change the equation right at the booth level.
At the microlevel, the party categorises booths as A, B and C. The first is the party’s strongholds; the second is where it has a 50-50 chance and the last category is where the party faces a tough challenge. The BJP may have a clear strategy and the resources to implement it; but the big challenge is to match the opposition firepower in the region. Congress top guns DK Shivakumar and Siddaramaiah and JDS leaders HD Deve Gowda and HD Kumaraswamy all come from the region.
On its part, the BJP is promoting Vokkaliga community leaders, who seem to be doing their best. But most of them are from Bengaluru city, barring a few senior leaders. Now, the party is likely to give importance to the region during the ministry rejig and also in the party reorganisation ahead of polls. Apart from the dominant Vokkaliga community, the party is also focusing on the significant backward class votes. Siddaramaiah enjoys a considerable support base among them, although OBC voters have not fully backed Congress in recent elections.
The JDS, meanwhile, is making efforts to woo minorities by appointing CM Ibrahim as the state unit president. Overcoming internal differences among its top leaders and consolidating anti-BJP votes may be a challenge for Congress. The JDS is facing its own share of problems with leaders deserting it in droves. While those factors may help BJP, its strategy cannot depend only on these aspects. Going by the recent bypolls and Council election results, the BJP and the Congress seem to be on an equal footing in most of the regions, except in Old Mysuru.
In Vokkaligadominated areas, the Opposition party has some advantage and hopes to use it to negate the ruling party’s possible gains in Lingayat-dominated North Karnataka. This was one of the major factors for the BJP’s growth under the leadership of BS Yediyurappa. Before the BJP emerged as a force, the community had backed Congress and Janata Parivar for a long time.
As BJP slowly consolidated its position in North Karnataka, the JDS managed to retain its hold in Old Mysuru. Congress could get the full support of the community when SM Krishna became the chief minister in 1999.
Now, Shivakumar is hoping to do an encore of the Congress performance under Krishna, the JDS is fighting for its survival and the BJP is going all guns blazing to conquer the last bastion. If the preparations are anything to go by, Old Mysuru is sure to witness a battle royal and decide the course of Karnataka politics.