The Congress and its I.N.D.I.A (Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance) bloc sees the caste survey as a potent political instrument to take on the BJP and the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) ahead of the 2024 Lok Sabha polls.
Now, with the State Permanent Backward Classes Commission set to submit its socioeconomic survey report to the State Government by the end of November, the Siddaramaiah government could use it as a tool to hit at the very core of the BJP’s political strategy of appealing to pan-Hindu unity. It would try to further consolidate the gains made after implementing the guarantee schemes, which include putting money directly into the hands of BPL families.
At the national level, it could help the party to showcase the “Karnataka model” of social justice and not let its I.N.D.I.A brigade partner and Bihar Chief Minister Nitesh Kumar take all the credit by releasing a caste survey report that put Other Backward Classes (OBC) at 63 %.
After its win in the May 10 assembly polls, the Congress is hoping to emulate its Karnataka Model of electioneering and governance in other election-bound states as well as during the Lok Sabha polls. Every step taken by the Siddaramaiah government indicates the party’s larger strategy for the Lok Sabha polls.
Since Siddaramaiah is a votary of social justice and strongly argues for increasing the reservation quota to provide better opportunities for the backward classes, he may take the gamble by accepting the report and spelling out the government’s plan of action. That can help the CM to position himself as a strong OBC leader in Congress not just in Karnataka but also at the national level, besides consolidating his hold on the AHINDA (a Kannada acronym for Minorities, Backward Classes, and Dalits).
His government recently approved the recommendation of the Justice Bhaktavatsala Commission to grant 33% reservation for Other Backward Classes (OBCs) in urban local bodies (ULBs) and panchayat elections.
Siddaramaiah’s decision to commission the Socio-Education Survey during his first stint as Chief Minister between 2013 and 2018 could come in handy now. The State Permanent Backward Classes Commission, which was then headed by H Kantharaju, did extensive work. The report was submitted to the government when HD Kumaraswamy was the Chief Minister in the Janata Dal (Secular)-Congress coalition government in 2018. However, it was not accepted due to a technical issue — the secretary of the commission had not signed the report. It has been lingering on since then. Now the incumbent chairman Jayaprakash Hegde, a BJP government appointee, is set to submit the report before his retirement at November-end — just months before the Lok Sabha polls.
The Congress strategists could be hoping that it will help the party subdue the BJP’s pan-Hindu-unity strategy as well as Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s charisma by assuring OBCs of better representation.
Although the details of the report are not yet known, the number of OBCs is expected to be much higher than other communities.
But, it is not a zero-risk strategy, especially when you need to weigh any decision from the perspective of its electoral implications. The report could open a Pandora’s box by creating discontent among the politically dominant Lingayats and Vokkaligas.
Congress certainly cannot afford to antagonize either of the two communities. If reactions to Congress veteran and All-India Veerashaiva Mahasabha president Shamanur Shivashankarappa’s remarks on officers belonging to the Veerashaiva-Lingayat community getting a raw deal in Siddaramaiah’s administration is anything to go by, the party should be extra cautious on its stand.
Leaders from both the dominant communities had expressed their ire when reports based on parts of the survey contents were allegedly leaked a few years ago.
BJP-JDS forging an alliance for the LS polls could also force the CM to rethink taking the gambit on the caste survey. While JD(S) enjoys support of a section of the Vokkaligas in the Old Mysuru region, Lingayats in North Karnataka back the BJP. Congress needs support from both these dominant communities along with OBCs if it has to better its 2019 performance.
Also, the BJP, which depends heavily on the charisma of PM Modi (who belongs to OBC), is likely to portray him as the tallest OBC leader in the country to counter Congress’s OBC narrative.
Indicating the stand BJP is likely to take on the issue, its state unit general secretary N Ravi Kumar had remarked that Siddaramaiah is the only OBC leader in Congress, and the party hasn’t made any OBC leader as DyCM.
As pressure mounts, it will be a test for Siddaramaiah’s commitment as a champion of the backward classes and his acumen to leverage the report for the party’s gains at the LS polls.