Caste census a risky strategy that could undo Congress’ gains
The Socio-Economic & Educational Survey 2015 (SES-2015), dubbed the Caste Census, is becoming a high-risk game for the ruling Congress in Karnataka. It could land the party in a big mess by pitting it against two major communities — Vokkaligas and Lingayats — if their concerns are not addressed before any decision is made on the contentious report.
By taking up the report based on the decade-old survey, Chief Minister Siddaramaiah could be looking at achieving multiple political goals in a single action. Those include: consolidating his support base among the AHINDA (Kannada acronym for Minorities, Backward Classes, and Dalits); implementing the promise made in the 2023 Assembly poll manifesto; conveying a message to the Congress high command, specifically to Rahul Gandhi, who is demanding nationwide caste census; and further consolidating his position within the party by putting his detractors in a bind.
For the Vokkaliga and Lingayat ministers, openly opposing the survey would be tantamount to going against the party’s high command, but not doing so would antagonise their respective communities that are demanding the government to reject the report.
That political game plan has already been put in motion. To a limited extent, some of those goals have also been achieved, with details of the yet-to-be-officially-released report coming out. But, given the stiff opposition from the dominant communities, and several questions raised over the report’s credibility, accuracy, and relevance, it is not certain if those at the helm of affairs would have full control over how the situation will evolve.
SWith voices in favour and opposing the report getting louder, striking a balance between them will not be an easy task. The Opposition BJP will be looking to capitalise on the anger among the Lingayats, while the regional party, Janata Dal (Secular), could consider it as an opportunity to regain its foothold in the Old Mysuru region, a Vokkaliga bastion.
If the government decides to go ahead with the report, Deputy Chief Minister and state Congress president DK Shivakumar, who is aspiring to become the CM, would be at the receiving end. He would face the ire of the Vokkaliga community, to which he belongs.
hivakumar was among the signatories who had submitted a memorandum to the CM in November 2023, requesting rejection of the report. Earlier this week, the Vokkaligara Sangha, the community body, threatened a massive protest against any move to accept the report. It asked the elected representatives to fight for the community’s interests.
Similarly, it would put the Lingayat ministers, including Industries Minister MB Patil and Forest Minister Eshwar Khandre, in a tight spot. In the 2018 Assembly polls, the Siddaramaiah government’s stand on giving Lingayats a status of separate religion was one of the factors that adversely impacted Congress. Many Lingayat leaders who were ministers in the Siddaramaiah government lost the 2018 Assembly polls.
The community leaders from the party would be wary of the negative implications of the caste survey. As senior Congress legislator, former minister, and Akhil Bharat Veerashaiva-Lingayat Mahasabha president, Shamanur Shivashankarappa puts it, Lingayats and Vokkaligas will fight together if the report is accepted. Vokkaligara Sangha also expressed similar views.
Both communities insist that they are not against a caste census, but want it to be done in a scientific manner, to reflect the real numbers of all the communities. They feel their numbers are under-counted, and that the study done a decade ago is outdated and unscientific as a large chunk of households were left out.
The SES-2015 by the Karnataka State Permanent Backward Classes Commission, a Rs 160-crore exercise, was commissioned during Siddaramaiah’s first tenure as CM from 2013 to 2018. H Kantharaju was the commission’s chairman when the study was done in 2015. Those deputed to collect details reportedly visited over 1.35 crore households and gathered socio-economic and educational data of over 5.98 crore people. The CM claimed that it is a scientific survey, covering 98% of the rural population and 95% of the urban population.
Although the survey was done in 2015, the report was not submitted during Siddaramaiah’s first tenure as CM. The report, based on the study done in 2015, was submitted to the state government in February 2024 by the then chairman, Jayaprakash Hegde, who later unsuccessfully contested the 2024 Lok Sabha polls from the Udupi-Chikmagalur seat as a Congress candidate.
or the first time, the survey report was taken up for discussion in the special cabinet meeting, earlier this week. While that meeting remained inconclusive, and it is scheduled to be taken up again for discussions at the May 2 cabinet meeting, the report is unlikely to be implemented anytime soon.
Perhaps, the government will buy time on the pretext of getting more information or clarifications on the report. Those privy to the developments also say that an opportunity should be given to people to add or re-verify their details, as questions are being raised over the report’s accuracy. The whole issue needs to be handled deftly by taking all communities into confidence, failing which such an exercise could harm the social fabric.
Siddaramaiah may be toeing Rahul Gandhi’s line to strengthen his position within the party, while trying to send out a message that it is an effort to ensure proportionate representation for backward communities. But as things stand today, Congress would be wary of its political implications, as it is a risky strategy that could potentially undo its gains.