BENGALURU: Karnataka, which produces over 70% of India’s coffee, is heading into what could be its most favourable season yet — even better than the past three years that saw record-breaking exports.
Officials at the Coffee Board say this year’s flowering was the most ideal in recent times due to perfectly timed blossom and backing showers. With exports having jumped from $700 million to $2 billion between 2021 and 2024, the state is now closely watching how the monsoon will be. If rains remain well-distributed, growers can expect strong yields, better bean quality, and stable prices, officials told TNIE.
“This year’s pre-monsoon conditions have been perfect — better than even the record-setting years we’ve just had,” a senior official from the Coffee Board said, adding that the early stages of the crop cycle, especially flowering and fruit setting, are crucial in determining both yield and quality and this year, everything has aligned so far. In coffee cultivation, the flowering stage usually takes place in February and March. During this time, timely and balanced rains — called blossom and backing showers — are critical as they help trigger flowering and support fruit development, the official explained.
Prices expected to stabilise, not rise further
Shivalinga Kamath from Coorg Coffee Growers told TNIE that further price increases are unlikely. “Prices have already reached a historic high. It’s unrealistic to expect another jump. But even if they stabilise at current levels, that’s a good return,” he said, pointing out that if prices rise too much, it could lower consumption— especially at retail level, where prices have already increased by about 200%.
“Too much increase will push consumers away from coffee, and even if prices drop later, people won’t necessarily return to it. That’s not good for the long-term health of the value chain,” Kamath said, adding that if Brazil’s output rises and global supply increases, prices could fall sharply. But if demand has already dropped by then, the losses will be harder to recover,” he highlighted.