The behind-the-scenes struggle for power in the ruling Congress appears to be intensifying. A sense of uncertainty is palpable in the corridors of Vidhana Soudha, and talks of leadership change have become central to most political discussions in the state.
While that may have been the case for some time, what is striking is that Chief Minister Siddaramaiah’s camp has kept the pot boiling, while Deputy Chief Minister DK Shivakumar and his followers are exercising restraint. That is unusual for a leader known for playing his game on the front foot and often preferring a less-nuanced approach while countering his political detractors.
The state Congress chief’s restraint on the leadership issue could mean that he is reasonably assured by the party’s high command that his interests would be protected. That could perhaps be the reason for his confidence, even though the CM’s camp is indicating that a leadership change at this juncture would be riddled with challenges and a tough call to make.
The CM’s staunch follower, Housing Minister Zameer Ahmed Khan’s emphatic declaration earlier this week that Siddaramaiah will continue as CM for full five years, till 2028, reflects the mood in the camp. He even went on to say that Shivakumar should become the CM after Siddaramaiah completes his full tenure in 2028.
In fact, the minister was more confident than the CM himself. Siddaramaiah appears to have made a climbdown from his earlier stance of asserting that he would complete the full term to stating that he would complete the five-year tenure if the high command permits it. The reason for this subtle yet profound change — “if the high command permits” — is not known.
Also, Siddaramaiah’s recent remarks on reconsidering his earlier decision not to contest the next assembly elections were also worth taking note of, especially in the current political context. His remarks came after his son and Congress MLC Dr Yathindra Siddaramaiah kicked up a political storm by stating that his father was at the fag end of his political career and PWD Minister Satish Jarkiholi would provide leadership to all those who believe in Congress ideology.
Jarkiholi, a Congress strongman from Belagavi, is not in a hurry, and he seems to have set his eyes on the top post only after the 2028 polls. He played down the CM’s son’s remarks that ruffled many in Shivakumar’s camp.
In any case, the remarks by Khan or Yathindra may not necessarily indicate the developments in the offing, but they do reflect the thinking in the CM’s camp. Speculation over a major rejig in the cabinet after the government completes its halfway mark of two-and-a-half years in office on November 20, and talks resurfacing about a Dalit leader in the party being made a CM, are also said to originate from the leaders resisting any plans by the high command to change the CM.
Many legislators continue to openly express their ministerial aspirations, while some ministers remark about ‘sacrificing’ their posts to work for the party, if the high command takes such a decision.
Backroom manoeuvring will only get intense. The CM’s camp would project how indispensable Siddaramaiah is for the party, in Karnataka as well as in national politics, as Congress lacks a strong OBC face. Their efforts would be to suggest that replacing an OBC leader, who has effectively implemented the welfare schemes — five guarantees announced in the run-up to the 2023 assembly polls — with a Vokkaliga leader may not bode well for the party.
While that may be the CM’s camp’s strategy, the DyCM seems to be giving the impression that he is unfazed by all this hullabaloo, hoping that everything will be decided by the high command.
For now, Congress leaders from both camps appear to be keenly awaiting the outcome of the Bihar elections this month, as that may have some impact on how the situation evolves in Karnataka. Congress may not be a major factor in the Bihar elections, which largely revolve around Nitish Kumar and Lalu Yadav, with the BJP emerging as a force.
Congress is a junior partner in the alliance led by the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD). However, if I.N.D.I.A bloc emerges victorious, the Congress high command would be more assertive. On the contrary, a poor show by the party could make its leadership risk-averse. That could also embolden Congress satraps in the state to assert themselves when they sit down for negotiations with central leaders after November 20.
