In May 2023, when the people of Karnataka handed over a thumping majority to the Congress, they hardly had any inkling that the government would be weighed down by a power struggle and political uncertainty, even as it approaches the halfway mark.
While many in the party believe that there was an agreement to share power between the top two — Chief Minister Siddaramaiah and Deputy Chief Minister DK Shivakumar — the suspense continues as the leadership has not gone public with its stand on either reaching such an arrangement or totally rejecting it. The high command’s stand has continued to fuel speculation. Now, both camps seem to be resorting to their own political strategies, while some ministers are appealing to the party leadership to end speculation.
However, the high command – which is trying to discipline its leaders talking about the issue – appears to be apprehensive about the ramifications of making its stand public. Its silence on the issue could even be part of a larger deliberate strategy to keep everyone guessing and run the show, as sending out a clear message could prove to be a bigger risk than trying to end the uncertainty.
The show of bonhomie among the top leaders in the state seems to have tapered a bit, while speculation over leadership change and a major cabinet reshuffle by dropping 50% of ministers are doing the rounds. The CM’s detractors in the party are of the view that rumours about a cabinet reshuffle are being spread by those wanting to consolidate their position by keeping ministers and ministerial aspirants guessing.
While ministerial aspirants in the party are openly expressing their ambitions and are hopeful of a reshuffle, Shivakumar’s camp is unlikely to endorse such a move before the leadership issue is decided. A major cabinet reshuffle would effectively mean the high command’s approval of Siddaramaiah’s continuation for a full term of five years. Although the CM and his followers have claimed that he would complete the full five-year tenure, the high command has not stated that emphatically. The central leaders have only said that the party is capable of taking a decision.
Some senior ministers in the government feel that a major reshuffle to accommodate new faces would help the party in the 2028 elections. But they are non-committal about the leadership change, leaving that decision to the high command. In any case, the party will not take a decision immediately. The window for taking any major decision, including that of the leadership issue or cabinet reshuffle, would be after the Bihar elections next month and before next year’s elections in Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Assam, West Bengal, and Puducherry.
The outcome of the Bihar elections could have some bearing on future developments in the state. It could either make the Congress central leadership more confident of asserting itself, or it could end up being wary of taking risks. More than anything, a lot depends on its ability to safeguard the interests of the CM and the DyCM.
Siddaramaiah has projected himself as a formidable Other Backward Classes (OBC) leader in Congress and an astute administrator who implemented welfare schemes to present the Karnataka model of governance that the party portrays during elections in other states, while Shivakumar has proved himself to be the party’s go-to leader in times of crises and a capable organiser who revived the party’s fortunes at a time when it was on a downward slide.
For now, the Chief Minister’s upcoming dinner meeting with his ministers on Monday has generated a lot of buzz in political circles. Like every major political development in the state, it is also being linked to the larger picture of the leadership issue.
One section of senior leaders maintain that issues such as leadership change or cabinet reshuffle will not figure in such meetings, as those decisions have to be taken by the high command; another section hopes that he “might give some hint” of the developments.
What is on the dinner menu would be known only after the CM’s camp dishes it out to the ministers. Perhaps, Siddaramaiah might also present them with some food for thought, as his government, which enjoys an absolute majority in the Assembly and spends over Rs 52,000 crore on implementing guarantee schemes, is weighed down by the political uncertainty.
Some even wonder if the Congress has taken recourse to former Prime Minister PV Narasimha Rao’s strategy: Not taking a decision is also a decision. At times, allowing circumstances to evolve till they present an ideal situation for intervention may be a shrewd political strategy. The leadership issue is no longer an internal political matter, as some senior Congress leaders claim it to be. It’s about people who reposed faith in the party and gave them the mandate. Allowing the uncertainty to continue is not in the best interest of the party or the state.
