The situation in Congress seems to be quite messy. The party legislators are demanding a cabinet reshuffle and openly setting a deadline, while the central leadership appears to be caught in a dilemma over the leadership issue. Senior leaders, including many ministers, believe change is on the cards. But they are not certain what that change would be.
Earlier this week, the government completed three years in office and is heading towards the home stretch of its five-year tenure. At a big rally to celebrate the milestone, Chief Minister Siddaramaiah and Deputy Chief Minister DK Shivakumar, who is also State Congress president, signalled that all is hunky-dory, and the party would retain power in the 2028 polls. But contrary to the public posturing of the top leaders, many senior leaders feel there is an urgent need for course correction, as further delay could be disastrous for the party’s prospects.
It is unclear if the Congress high command is considering replacing Siddaramaiah with Shivakumar as part of the power-sharing agreement they purportedly reached while forming the government in 2023. The Congress leadership has ambiguously denied the existence of the power-sharing agreement.
So much so that it has not even said that Siddaramaiah would be the CM for the full five years of the current term. In the absence of a clear message, political circles are abuzz with speculation, including that of AICC president Mallikarjun Kharge returning to state politics.
The prolonged uncertainty over leadership change seems to be undoing the gains accrued by guarantee schemes with yearly budgetary allocation of over Rs 50,000 crore. The government is also making an effort to highlight its development agenda, apart from implementing guarantee schemes. But that narrative is yet to gain traction. Some senior Congress leaders admit that development has not been to the extent they had envisaged, and that the government is facing anti-incumbency on the ground.
Also, Congress needs to factor in the BJP-JDS alliance in the polls. While the BJP banks on the Lingayat community in North Karnataka, the JDS’ efforts to woo the Vokkaligas in the Old Mysuru region could get a boost if Congress fails to consider Shivakumar’s chief ministerial aspirations. Congress needs to look ahead in its long-term interest. However, if that is best served by retaining Siddaramaiah as the CM for the full five years, the high command should announce it and move on by taking Shivakumar into confidence.
For a long time, the Congress leadership appears to be embroiled in a dilemma over current equations versus long-term interests of the party. Given what the two leaders – CM and DyCM – are capable of bringing to the table, it is not easy for the party to make a decision.
Siddaramaiah – the longest-serving CM in Karnataka, and currently the oldest serving CM in India – has positioned himself as the champion of backward classes and minorities, who constitute a significant part of the Congress support base.
The 77-year-old leader, who quit JDS and joined Congress in July 2006, has been at the centre of power in the party and the government for most of the last two decades. His position as a strong local leader has been further bolstered by the manner in which the party high command gave in to local factors while appointing VD Satheesan as the Kerala CM, without imposing their choice.
On the other hand, Shivakumar enjoys support from the party cadre, who feel that his unflinching loyalty and contribution to the party’s victory in the 2023 polls need to be rewarded. Known for his organisational abilities and dynamic approach, the 65-year-old Vokkaliga leader is fully banking on the high command and hoping that his ambition of becoming the CM is just a phone call away.
Many in the party hope that the high command may soon end the uncertainty one way or another after consulting senior leaders, just like the party did in neighbouring Kerala.
Meanwhile, the BJP central leadership is turning its focus to Karnataka with party president Nitin Nabin’s maiden visit to the state on Sunday, when a series of meetings are planned. With the BJP top brass directly monitoring the party’s preparations in Karnataka nearly two years before the assembly polls, Congress cannot remain complacent.
The party needs to address the internal issues urgently while gearing up for external challenges. The CM and DyCM are likely to be called to the national capital soon. A lot depends on how the high command handles the delicate situation and carries it forward. But, one thing is certain: no decision can be made without taking Siddaramaiah into confidence.
Ramu Patil
Deputy Resident Editor
ramu@newindianexpress.com
