BENGALURU: With the resignation of Chief Minister Siddaramaiah, the leadership change issue, projected by the party high command as a step towards greater organisational unity and renewed momentum, has now raised serious questions about the Congress’ ability to retain its crucial AHINDA coalition that powered its victory in the 2023 Assembly elections.
Siddaramaiah, widely regarded as the most influential backward caste mass leader in Karnataka since former CM Devaraj Urs, has been central to transforming AHINDA from a political slogan into a potent electoral alliance. His ability to mobilise dozens of small, fragmented OBC communities, many numbering just a few thousand voters per constituency, along with solid support from Muslims and Dalits, proved decisive in countering the BJP. This social engineering experiment even when he was in JDS led to his earlier expulsion from that party.
However, concern is mounting that this support was heavily personality-driven. Without Siddaramaiah at the helm, party insiders and observers felt that micro OBC groups could fragment or realign along narrower community lines. BJP leader and former minister Varthur Prakash, who belongs to Siddaramaiah’s Kuruba community and was once close to him, delivered a sharp warning.
He predicted that the Congress could be reduced to as few as 40 seats in the next election without Siddaramaiah. Even in defeat, Prakash argued, the party could have retained 80-90 seats under his leadership because of the strong emotional connection with backward class voters.
Many protests were held across the state by Siddaramaiah supporters who were clearly unhappy that he was asked to step down. Backward Class Minister Santosh Lad openly wept.
Analysts have drawn parallels with the BJP’s decision to replace Lingayat strongman B S Yediyurappa with Basavaraj Bommai mid-term, a move widely seen as a strategic error that weakened the party’s core support base. Congress now stands accused of repeating a similar mistake by sidelining a proven social coalition-builder for internal stability.
The Congress leadership believes the transition is essential. Prolonged factional tensions between the Siddaramaiah and Shivakumar camps had created persistent instability.
By elevating Shivakumar, a Vokkaliga leader known for his organisational skills, aggressive campaigning and financial strength, the party hopes to consolidate the dominant Vokkaliga while projecting fresh energy ahead of the 2028 Assembly polls.
Yet this strategy carries risks. Shivakumar’s appeal is often viewed as more regionally and community-specific compared to Siddaramaiah’s broader AHINDA outreach. Questions remain whether Vokkaliga consolidation can offset potential losses among backward classes and minorities. Some are sceptical if Vokkaligas will leave JDS and move to the Congress.
