The Congress’s rout in the Legislative Council polls, per se, will not change much in the state legislature’s Upper House. In the 75-member council with elected and nominated members, Congress has 37 MLCs and the opposition National Democratic Alliance (NDA)’s strength has increased to 31. Five seats reserved for government nominations are vacant. However, it is not just about the numbers. The message is more consequential for Congress in Karnataka, one of the most critical states for the party.
The Upper House elections are no barometer for the general elections. The candidates’ rapport with voters is critical in the council polls, while party and leadership backing is a key factor. However, the recent poll results indicate that the effective coordination and vote transfer among NDA allies, BJP and JDS is a cause for concern for Congress.
If the same synergy between the two parties is replicated in the assembly polls, it could be a game-changer in the Old Mysuru region, posing a threat to Chief Minister DK Shivakumar’s 2028 political ambition. In the Vokkaliga heartland, JDS is a force to reckon with, and BJP has worked hard, especially over the last few years, to gain some foothold.
In the 2023 assembly polls, the triangular fight helped Congress, with many of its candidates winning by a narrow margin. However, consolidation of anti-Congress votes could risk their electoral prospects in the coming elections.
In the Bengaluru Teachers’ constituency, coordination between the two parties helped JDS’s AP Ranganath defeat Congress’s Puttanna, a five-term MLC. The assembly segments represented by the CM and many prominent ministers are within the Bengaluru Teachers’ constituency.
BJP’s Shashil Namoshi was reelected for a fifth term from the Karnataka State Northeast Teachers Constituency that includes AICC president Mallikarjun Kharge’s home district, Kalaburgi, and six other districts in the Kalyan Karnataka region. While S V Sankanur was reelected from the West Graduates’ Constituency, K M Suresh was elected from the South East Graduates’ Constituency.
The 4-0 win in the first major elections held after DK Shivakumar and BK Hariprasad took over the reins of the government and the party, respectively, has given a booster dose for the NDA leaders to enter the battle with confidence. The parties that suffered a crushing defeat in the last assembly polls now feel that victory is within striking distance provided they make all the right moves. The MLC election was a good rehearsal for them before the elections to the local bodies and assembly polls in early 2028.
However, nearly 18 months is a long time in politics. A lot can change. Ensuring the alliance works seamlessly in assembly polls is far more complex than in council polls, which have fewer seats and voters. Too many connected variables will be at play.
BJP insiders say its central leadership is keen to strengthen the alliance and prevent a split in anti-Congress votes. The last thing they want to do is to err in judgment and repent at leisure. Perhaps they see Union Minister HD Kumaraswamy as the NDA’s bulwark against Shivakumar’s efforts to consolidate Vokkaliga votes in favour of Congress, as the election will be fought under his leadership.
For Shivakumar, the MLC election results were a major setback. Now the question is whether it further exasperates his troubles. In 2023, when Congress went to assembly polls, as KPCC president and CM-aspirant, he was in full control of the party. Although then Chief Minister Siddaramaiah is a formidable mass leader, his role in party affairs is limited. That is no longer the case now. Shivakumar has got to deal with many factors. Hariprasad, who enjoys a good rapport with the party high command, seems to be in full control of the KPCC.
Some Congress insiders admit that fissures within the party are taking their toll. The party leaders cannot afford to be complacent with past success or ignore anti-incumbency sentiment. The CM’s enthusiasm to infuse vigour into the administration is not matched by all his ministers. It’s unclear how the government’s campaigns, such as Special Intensive Revision (SIR), are connecting with the voters.
Controversies such as sting operations – allegedly involving Congress insiders – have added to its woes. The longer the controversy stays at the centre-stage of political debate – either due to political slugfest or questions over fairness of the probe allegedly targeting Janata Dal (S) workers – it will take a toll on the government’s image.
Acknowledging that the voters have given a clear message in the recent MLC polls, the CM has said they will introspect on the reasons for the party’s losses. While the Congress will be keen to make course corrections by taking party leaders and cadre into confidence, BJP-JDS will aim to capitalize on the momentum.
