THIRUVANANTHAPURAM: The Congress camp is upbeat. Just a day before the state goes for the Lok Sabha polls, Congress thinktanks are high in confidence, anticipating a silent wave against the CPM; a wave similar to the one that washed out the UDF in 2004.
The critical assessment made by top party functionaries shows that the political weather is congenial for the Congress in 19 seats. Of these 12 will be easy walk-overs.
The rest will see tight finishes, but favourable to the Congress. The Congress leadership is even predicting upset victories in some CPM strongholds, which will be a severe jolt to the Marxist party leadership.
The research and analysis team of the Congress did not lose sight of the fact that everything depends on the role of party functionaries at the grass-root level who should persuade the voters in their direction.
An election fought with no antiincumbency wave against the Central Government is what the Congress sees as the most advantageous factor in this election.
The anti-incumbency against the LDF Government, the PDP factor, the growing indifference within the LDF and the CPM are the major factors which Congress leaders feel will create a wave in their favour.
If 75 percent of the Muslim votes were with the UDF till the 2004 elections, that degenerated by the 2006 elections with 45 percent of Muslim votes in the LDF’s kitty.
But now the Congress camp is confident that the anti-CPM wave will have an impact on the Muslim vote bank.
Not just that, a Hindu backlash against the LDF in the Malabar region is what the Congress is counting on.
Political analysts of the Congress predict that caste votes will prove decisive in certain seats. The Christian, Hindu and anti-Madhani Muslim votes are what the Congress feels will be advantageous for it. The aristocratic groups in all three communities will stand by the Congress this time, is the analysis by Congress think-tanks.
While the Congress leaders themselves admit that the CPM has an edge in Kasargod, they are not ruling out upset victories in Attingal, Palakkad and Alathur where the odds favour the CPM even at this penultimate hour.
