THIRUVANATHAPURAM: Believe it or not. When exit poll results of the Assembly elections will be released by various media organisations on Tuesday, there will be a lot to cheer for the LDF.
Top sources involved with the conduct of at least two different exit polls in the state told Express that the close contest that was visible on ground has been reflected in the exit poll as well.
Leaked-out tips from various organisations indicate that the difference between the winning front and the Opposition will be wafer-thin this time. The poll by a national news channel is learnt to have found out a one percent swing in favour of the LDF and that may help the ruling front gain a majority of two to five seats in the poll. According to another exit poll, the UDF will romp home with around 80 seats.
“Our experience in the past is that exit poll results are very close to reality. They will be more accurate than the results of opinion polls,’’ said psephologist and political scientist G Gopakumar who himself had led a number of exit polls in the previous elections.
But he cautioned that selection of sample and proper interview techniques was necessary for the fruitfulness of an exit poll.
It is reliably learnt that the exit poll that foresees a come back by the LDF also notes that 17 percent of the respondents were not willing to disclose their preference.
“Such a huge neutral sample will affect the study. A total sample around 3,500 and 17 percent means nearly 600 voters,’’ pointed out a researcher who was part of the team that interviewed voters for that survey. He said unlike previous years, the sample was more hostile this year due to unknown reasons.
However, other surveys that predict a UDF win don’t have such a high percentage of neutral voters.
The information that exit polls predict a close contest has brought cheers to the LDF camp and cast a pall of gloom over the UDF camp.
As there are three more days to know the result, the final moments of the long wait are sure to be more anxious and tense.
