What went right for the Left? What went wrong for the UDF, particularly the Congress? Will the BJP-led NDA get stronger in the future?
Unnikrishnan Atiyodi, Payyannur
Negative votes saved the LDF this time. The fiasco of the UDF is the result of its indiscipline and bohemian nature. Perhaps KPCC president V M Sudheeran’s incorrigible attitude for a total liquor ban got called on the carpet by the people. People believed that the allegations of Saritha were true. Finally a general impression was created that the UDF Government was immersed in corruption and nepotism. The land imbroglio and many other examples could be cited to prove that the UDF was challenging the people. Those who had a soft corner changed sides and voted for the BJP-led NDA enabling them to be in second position in six or seven constituencies. Unless the Congress learns discipline, they have no chance to win polls.
Dr M Haneef, Kottayam
This time the pendulum of victory swung to the LDF side not because of its merits but because of the demerits of its rival UDF. The LDF win can also be attributed to the dedicated work of its cadre. The corruption charges against the UDF was that powerful that it overshadowed the developmental works done by the front. Deft move on the part of the chief minister to overshoot the KPCC chief by announcing closure of many bars has led to the debacle. The controversy created by the KPCC president regarding tainted candidates, though with good intention, cut a sorry figure in front of the public. The NDA in Kerala may definitely get stronger and stronger, but may take a very long time to come to power, till the minorities are assured freedom to dress, eat and pray as they like.
Narayanaswamy Raman, Parali
It is common knowledge that Kerala’s electoral politics is bipolar in nature with the state witnessing a kind of political cycle every five years. Therefore it is nothing new that the LDF has been swept back to power thanks to the strong anti-incumbency wave that drove the scam-ridden UDF out. Whatever that went wrong with the UDF proved beneficial largely for the LDF. The 2016 Assembly elections witnessed the emergence of a third front - BJP-led NDA with an impressive vote share which tilted the balance in favour of the LDF. This again came as a boon to the LDF. Though the BJP managed to open its account in Kerala and improved its vote share substantially, the party still faces the herculean task of winning the confidence of the minority Muslim and Christian communities to become a formidable third force. Until then, people have no option but to sustain the existing yo-yo politics.
Eappen Elias, T’Puram
People of Kerala were fed up with scams and corruptions related to solar, bar and land deals and all that turned to votes in favour of the LDF. The shift in Muslim votes from UDF to LDF was another factor and the LDF media management could convince the voters in their favour. And for the UDF, the anti-incumbency factor was the major reason. However, extreme minority appeasement, scandal one after the other, the surge in the Hindu votes for BJP-led NDA and their pathetic campaign made the UDF bite the dust. The NDA did a wonderful job by securing 15 per cent of the vote share and managed to send O Rajagopal to the Assembly. Though the performance of the BJP did not translate into multiple seats, the party is now a force to reckon with in Kerala. The NDA will be an alternative to right and left politics in the state.
Dr Titus Sankaramangalam, Eraviperoor
Although the UDF’s fate was sealed the day V M Sudheeran became the KPCC president, it was the former FM K M Mani’s secret intentions to become the CM that accelerated the downfall. Faced with the task of countering Sudheeran on the one hand and Mani on the other, Oommen Chandy was forced to attempt some face-saving gymnastics on the bar issue. The results show that he fell bottoms up. Then it was Saritha’s turn to make many a minister young and old dance to her tune. Corruption of course provided the rocky background music. And the final fatal blow came when the people, especially the minorities, feared that the UDF will not be able to forestall the BJP. The BJP’s future in Kerala will largely depend on Modi’s continued rule at the Centre. Good candidates can surely win but they can no longer depend on the BDJS to garner more votes.
S Lakshmi, email
The drubbing of the Congress-led UDF at the hands of the LDF was a foregone conclusion in Kerala. The performance of the UDF was dismal and lackadaisical, which had lost precious time of its tenure in scandals and corrupt practices. The UDF had ample chance and time to undertake people-friendly activities and programmes, At the fag end of the term, the UDF appeared to give final touches to schemes like Kochi Metro, even before they were meaningfully out of the egg, to take off on their own. The LDF which too did not have a great track-record was the only option before the electorate, which it could effectively capitalise on the anti-incumbency plank. The BJP-led NDA can be seen as a severe threat to the political survival of the UDF and the LDF. The BJP made its presence felt by winning a lone seat, while dramatically improving the vote share in the state.
Pious Alummoottil, Udayamperoor
The right thing that helped the LDF get a clear mandate in the polls was its campaign tagline: “LDF Varum Ellam Sariyakum.” The people have taken the expression positively while exercising their franchise. The wrong thing for the UDF was their affinity to corruption. Most of the Congress ministers are not free from corruption and its inclination to corruption has also led to its failure. The attitude of Oommen Chandy in fielding corrupt ministers against the interests of the KPCC president and the high command has aided the defeat. The BJP-led NDA will never find a space between the LDF and the UDF as the people are happy to change them every five years. There is also no creditable leader in their kitty to project as a candidate to lead Kerala. O Rajagopal’s poll win in Nemom cannot be considered as a gain for the NDA but his personal victory.
O B Nair, Poonithura
Kerala has once again chosen the established bi-polar system of government formation irrespective of pressures from newly emphasised doctrines of NDA and the opposing UDF. Right from the beginning, one could differentiate the assertive, continuous and determined propaganda of the LDF in all possible spheres and the other groups could reach nowhere near the former. The UDF campaigns were of mediocre value and it even got pushed down to the last position at times and their performance during the tenure masked with corruption and intra-party tussles, which did over shadow the election results. The third alternative boasted by the NDA succeeded not only in opening the account An impartial estimate indicates that the vote share of the BJP has multiplied several folds compared to their earlier performance and this systematic improvement reveals a better scope for the future.
Dr Sicy Choorakuzhy, Kannur
The reasons for Congress’ humiliating defeat are numerous. As has happened all over the country, Congress’ loss is BJP’s gain; so was it in Kerala too. Congress as a national party, should not have tried to “run with the hare and hunt with the hound” which ultimately resulted in their decimation. Further, Sudheeran’s ideological stand on candidate selection and subsequent meek surrender added “gun powder” like fuel to voters suspicion of corruption charges not only on Ministers but on CM too. Moreover, allegations of communal appeasement against the Congress contributed to substantial alienation of majority community votes, and that helped the BJP increase its vote share substantially.
Jayasree Thampi, T’Puram
The 2016 Assembly poll verdict was truly in accordance with the status of the state as the most literate and politically enlightened one in the country. The UDF was confident of getting a second term in office on account of its developmental agenda. But scams and corruption charges marred the electoral prospects of the UDF. The LDF had been successful in projecting the corruptions and scams of the UDF Government thereby leading to the ouster of the ministry. Under the changed circumstances, BJP is the common enemy of the UDF and the LDF. Although the success of the BJP-led NDA is confined to a single seat, it can be viewed as an auspicious beginning having far-reaching consequences. Considering its voting percentage, it can be considered as a formidable force to reckon with in the state.
P Mangalachandran, Kannur
If people had taken at face value all the allegations of corruption and moral turpitude against the UDF ministers, the Front would have been routed in the elections. That has not happened. Instead ,it secured 38.8% of the votes polled as against LDF’s 43.1%. This is not to issue a clean chit to UDF, either. There is no doubt that the tilting of balance in favour of LDF this time might have been partly aided by the Saritha Nair and Biju Ramesh factors. But the main clinching factor is the usual anti-incumbency vote. Also, CPM appears to have exploited to its advantage the severe minority communalism prevailing in the state. For BJP, O Rajagopal’s winning in Nemom with convincing margin is a historic achievement, capable of sending jitters down the spine of both LDF and UDF who were hell-bent on ‘averting’ BJP’s entry into Assembly.
Prof M K Thomas, Chengannur
LDF’s poll punch line “LDF will come: Everything will be set right” was a master stroke of political acumen which cast a spell on voters with its critical and optimistic connotations. “UDF has left Kerala in a shambles: LDF will set it right.” This message of the one-liner was loud and clear. Even before elections, the writing on the wall was there for all to see. Rampant corruption and over-all moral degeneration under the cover of political power aroused righteous indignation of people against the UDF. But the LDF started campaign with result-oriented contact programmes and discussions with masses right from Pinarayi’s Kerala March. Every day, the captain and team listened to cross section of people and listened to their views and solutions to usher in a better Kerala. No wonder masses gave well-merited mandate to LDF and humiliating defeat to the UDF.
Elizabeth Koshy, Pathanamthitta
The pre-election scenario in Kerala was a free-for-all, with the incumbent government being sitting ducks for the scam and bribe accusations. The defeat of Congress in particular can be attributed to various reasons; scam and bribe charges, closing of bars, Jisha murder, candidature of ‘tainted’ ministers, anti- incumbency, ineffective campaigning, biased visual media hype, saffron effect, disunity in party, among others. Whatever went wrong for the Congress, proved right for the LDF and the Oommen Chandy government found the ground beneath slipping, to make way for a Red walkover. Left parties were lucky to recapture one of their last bastions, with conviction. The BJP, BDJS combination’s aggressive campaigning led by the Prime Minister himself managed to increase vote percentage remarkably and achieve success in one seat. The writing is on the wall. Kerala politics will never be the same again and saffron will be a colour to reckon with.
O P S Menon, Palakkad
The time and circumstance were favourable for the LDF to grab power and the change of guard in administration every five years between the LDF and UDF repeated. Scandals one after the other unearthed and Chief Minister Oommen Chandy and most of his ministers deep neck immersed in scandals gave the LDF too much ammunition to make large-scale propaganda against the UDF which gave a thumping majority to the LDF. Solar scandal, Bar bribery, corrupt land dealings and the inauguration of unfinished projects made the Chandy ministry a laughing stock among the people. Saritha Nair through solar scam has inflicted maximum damage to the UDF government. The BJP has managed to improve its vote share considerably and the party along with other NDA partners made its presence felt in the state and secured one seat by fighting against both the LDF and UDF which also made a dent in the UDF votes.