KASARGOD: A Malayalam news channel's "incredible" survey that the UDF candidate MP Joseph will snatch victory from the LDF in Trikaripur has unleashed pandemonium in both the political camps.
Both the LDF and the UDF dismissed the survey as disingenuous but it sure gave a leg up to Joseph, a resident of Tripunithara in Ernakulam district. He identifies himself as a Congressman but is contesting for the UDF as a candidate of the Kerala Congress (Joseph) faction.
"We do not believe the survey but we are happy to hear what the channel said," Abdul Kareem MTP, general secretary of the Muslim League's Trikaripur assembly constituency. If nothing, the survey introduced Joseph to the constituency, he said.
Initially, the LDF was dismissive of Joseph. "He managed to reach Trikaripur because the Congress workers here sent him the location map," said Congress rebel and president of East Eleri panchayat James Panthammakkal. He has taken with him around 5,000 voters of the crucial Christian-dominated panchayat to the LDF camp.
After 10 days in Trikaripur, Joseph has started firing salvos at the LDF. On Tuesday, he met collector D Sajith Babu with the details of 1,053 voters whose names are repeated in the voters' list.
He also called for surveillance cameras and security by paramilitary forces in 72 booths.
PK Faisal, Congress state executive member and chief agent of the candidate, said in these 73 booths the turnout is between 85% and 98.5%. "We believe the high turnout is because of massive rigging," he said.
Of these 73 booths, UDF agents were not allowed in 47 booths, thereby compromising the fairness of the election, he said.
KA Sreedharan, Congress leader and UDF convenor in Trikaripur, said Joseph had a chance if the was a check on bogus voting, increased turnout of UDF voters, and importantly a consolidation of Christain votes in his favour.
That is one too many ifs for the UDF and the Congress in particular.
Abdul Kareem of the Muslim League said the Congress had to put its house in order first. "The Muslim League has accepted Joseph and will vote for him. Rajagopalan is not a star among UDF voters. But the Congress should mend its ways," he said.
Joseph, a former UN diplomat and IAS officer, has a good profile to attract neutral voters and fence-sitters, he said. "But Congress is still fighting in Valiyaparamba and West Eleri," he said.
Leader of Opposition Ramesh Chennithala on Tuesday made a public call to the Congress leaders to stop fighting and get on with the electioneering. "Congress workers are not the problem. The leaders are," he said at a public function in Trikaripur, naming a few leaders. "This is not for the media to report. These are internal matters," he lightheartedly said.
But he too knew it was no laughing matter. A Congress worker in East Eleri said the LDF squads had visited his house thrice but the Congress was yet to come even once. "In Pongal ward, there are three present and former DCC secretaries. Yet they have not begun campaigning," he said.
The Congress worker said LDF candidate and incumbent M Rajagopalan had irked a section of CPM cadre and leaders, including district secretary MV Balakrishnan. "The district secretary was eyeing the seat. But to capitalise on the CPM's internal differences, the Congress should at reach out to the voters," he said.
Church tries to chip in, move backfires
What the Congress lacks, the church is trying to make up.
Last week, a vicar of an influential church in East Eleri put out a message in a WhatsApp group urging women not to vote for the LDF government because it gave food kits.
He wrote:
"For the information of mothers who are jumping for the continuity of Pinarayi Vijayan government because they are getting food kit: Liquor worth Rs 65,000 crore was consumed by your loved ones in the past five years. Remember, this is an all-time record for Kerala. On one hand, your family is being destroyed and on the other hand, the provisions you get in the monthly kit cost much less than the price your loved one pays for one bottle of liquor. The message of delivering the kit is simple: Be content with gruel. So think if you want a government that considers the sale of liquor as the main source of income to continue in power. Homemakers, don't forget that it is not the government that is feeding you. You people are the ones feeding the government. Do be too late in seeing through the deception of kit."
The post became controversial. "Priests were always against the LDF. No one really listens to them. The East Eleri panchayat election was an example," said a journalist who works for the Church-run newspaper.
During the local body election, the Church openly called for the defeat of the faction led by Panthammakkal. A priest reportedly even called the faction -- the Democratic Development Front (DDF)-- an evil force.
Yet, the DDF returned to power with the help of the LDF. East Eleri is the biggest setback for Congress. The panchayat was once its impregnable fortress but it imploded from within.
Congress leaders said they were starting the campaign in earnest from Thursday. "We just for the symbol (farmer on a tractor). We will be going to every house with pamphlets," said Sreedharan. "And we will also use the social media to introduce the voters to the new election symbol," he said. The traditional voters of UDF are used to voting for ladder and the 'hand' symbols.
'UDF won't make a dent in Trikaripur'
Trikaripur constituency is made up of Nileshwar municipality, and eight panchayats -- Cheruvathur, Padne, Pilicode, Trikaripur, Valiyaparamba, Kayyur-Cheemeni, East Eleri, and West Eleri.
Of these local bodies, Cheruvathur, Pilicode, Kayyur-Cheemeni, and Nileshwar are Left bastions. The Valiyaparamba and East Eleri -- formerly with UDF -- are now with the LDF because of infighting in the IUML and the Congress. The UDF managed to win West Eleri in 2020, but now there is a bitter fight going on among the Congress leaders.
Every election, the UDF raising the bogey of bogus voting, said Sabu Abraham, CPM's district secretariat member and campaign coordinator of the LDF candidate M Rajagopalan. "The LDF does not bogus votes to win in Trikaripur or anywhere else for that matter," he said.
In 2016, Rajagopalan had a more than 50% vote share and a lead of 16,959 votes. In 2011, CPM's K Kunhiraman had a lead of only 8,765 votes. Even in the 2019 parliament election, when the UDF swept the polls, LDF had a lead of 1,899 votes. In the 2020 local body election, the lead widened to 19,387 votes.
History, too, is on LDF's side. The last time a Congress candidate won in the Trikaripur constituency was in 1960 when it was known as Nileshwar. C Kunhikrishna Nair of the Congress defeated Koran Olaikkapurakal of the Praja Socialist Party by 173 votes. That was in a different era. An error, the Left would say.
If the 1960-1965 term is excluded, the constituency had overwhelmingly voted only for the Left since 1957, when it was Nileshwar, and then from 1977 when it became Trikaripur. It has been sent to Assembly stalwarts like E M S Namboodiripad (1957-1960) and E K Nayanar (1987-1996).
Over the years, the LDF tightened its grip on the constituency and winning in newer areas in Padna and Valiyaparamba, where IUML holds sway.
Sabu Abraham laughed off the "outburst" of the priest and the UDF's hope of a Christian consolidation. "If the UDF is hoping for a Christian consolidation because it fielded a Christian candidate, it is totally out of touch with reality," he said.
Rajagopalan brought in developmental projects worth Rs 1,416 crore in all areas of the constituency, he said. All PWD roads and bridges were either renovated or were being renovated, he said.
Clerical mistakes in the voter list were being blown out of proportion to defame the LDF. "There are double votes in UDF strongholds such as Perumbatta in West Eleri and at Paval and Udya Sports Club area in East Eleri," he said.
The high voting percentage in LDF areas was because the people of rural areas, particularly LDF supports, exercise their franchise, Abraham said.
That the UDF also agreed. "We have to increase our voting percentage to at least 75%," said Faisal.