KASARGOD: For years, 3-2 has been the scoreline for Kasaragod district. Three seats for the LDF and two for the IUML. In Trikaripur, Kanhangad and Udma assembly constituencies, BJP is a minor player and the fight is directly between LDF and UDF, and all three fall in LDF’s kitty, often because of the weak organisational structure of UDF, particularly Congress.
BJP comes into the picture in Kasaragod and Manjeshwar. The party enjoys a loyal vote bank — 35% in Manjeshwar and 38% in Kasaragod — but its hardline Hindutva campaigns, influenced by the RSS in Mangaluru — lead to consolidation of Muslim and secular votes against it. Though Manjeshwar has 53% Muslim voters, BJP makes little attempt to reach out to them. IUML uses such speeches by BJP to its advantage.
From the outside, the race in Manjeshwar may appear neck and neck, but IUML’s A K M Ashraf has an edge over Surendran, said political observer Mohammed Nizar Peruvad. “I won’t be surprised if LDF comes second in Manjeshwar,” he said. Nizar’s reasoning is based on the fact that BJP lost around 7,500 votes in the 2020 local body election compared to the 57,484 votes it polled in the 2019 byelection.
“BJP had plateaued in Manjeshwar but seldom does it lose votes. If the local body election is an indication, BJP is losing ground and LDF is on the rise,” he said. In Kasaragod, LDF’s constituent party, Indian National League, has fielded a lesser-known M A Latheef. That reduces the election to IUML’s N A Nellikkunnu versus BJP’s district president K Shreekanth.
“Nellikkunnu is likely to win again,” said Nizar. He said Nellikkunnu was an able legislator but not an efficient implementing agent. In Udma, CPM’s C H Kunhambu has an edge over challenger Balakrishnan Periya of the Congress. Balakrishnan has his strength of being a local resident. But a Congress victory will depend on the voting in Chemnad grama panchayat, an IUML stronghold. Kunhiraman, who is handholding Kunhambu in this campaign, has deep personal relations in the panchayat.
Pullur-Periya is the only other panchayat where UDF is in control. As for the other six panchayats which constitute the assembly segment, the Left front dominates in Bedadka, Pallikkara and Kuttikol and controls Delampady, Muliyar and Udma.
