THIRUVANANTHAPURAM: Only a few seats would stand between Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan and history. Without a doubt, the Left strongman would be the chief protagonist of the play in the assembly polls. With nothing to lose and a lot to gain, Pinarayi has left no stone unturned in his campaign for continuing in power. If veteran CPM leader and former chief minister V S Achuthanandan had to lead a faction-ridden party when he had a similar chance in 2011, Pinarayi faces no such threat - neither from within the party nor the party-led front. If elected, his will be first-ever Left government in the state's history to get a second consecutive term.
That a Left win could very well prove to be the farewell party of the Congress has forced the UDF to pull out all the stops and give its best shot. With the Election Commission setting the ball rolling, both fronts are confident of a win. An early election has also forced the three fronts to advance their poll preparations on a war footing, including seat-sharing talks, sorting out internal disputes, candidate selection and campaigning. While the Opposition UDF completed its Kerala tour earlier, the two statewide rallies by the ruling Left front concluded on Friday. On the other hand, the BJP's campaign tour is midway.
Riding on the Rahul Gandhi wave, UDF hopes to make big strides based on the massive response garnered by Opposition leader Ramesh Chennithala's Aishwarya Kerala Yatra. Noticeably, the two 'Vikasana Munnetta Jathas' by CPM secretary in-charge A Vijayaraghavan and CPI central leader Binoy Viswam couldn't boast of having the same impact. The 'Vijaya Yatra' by BJP state chief K Surendran too has been eliciting a mild response from the masses.
In a way, early polls would be advantageous to both LDF and UDF, said political commentator N M Pearson. Its victory in the local body elections has been a confidence booster for the Left. That it won the polls amidst the Opposition campaign to sully its image with the gold smuggling row, drug racket and a slew of other allegations has added to the Left's confidence.
Taking a cue from the local body polls, the Left would focus on its development narrative and attempt to stay away from controversies. However, it does have its share of problems to deal with. CPM is especially cautious about the back-to-back rows, triggered by its secretary in-charge A Vijayaraghavan recently. The UDF on the other hand is banking on the anti-incumbency factor triggered by the two recent controversies – appointment row and deep-sea fishing deal. With the issues active in public memory, it won't be easy for the Left to stay in power. “It's not going to be a cakewalk for either fronts. What's going to be important is how relevant BJP would prove to be,” said Pearson.
The Left has been harping on its anti-UDF agenda for sometime now and it could prove counter-productive, felt political observer J Prabhash. Similarly, the BJP's role could be decisive, he said. How the spoiler effect of the saffron party pans out would be crucial in several constituencies, he said. “None of the three fronts were caught unawares by the EC's announcement, as they were expecting the election date to fall around the first week of April. The narrative set by the Left that the fight is between the Left and the right wing forces may backfire. The minorities' response to it could prove crucial,” he said.
What remains unpredictable in Kerala is its politically literate electorate which has always known to differentiate between local body, assembly and parliament polls. It is an electorate which cannot be taken for granted. In spite of all tall claims, allegations and controversies, the final weeks of politicking do matter.
What went wrong for the previous Oommen Chandy government were a few disastrous decisions in the final weeks of its governance. While experts felt Pinarayi too had been making the same mistake, senior CPM leader Kodiyeri Balakrishnan begged to differ. “Unlike Chandy, the Pinarayi government cancelled the deals when public criticism cropped up. That the Left takes people into confidence is why we believe it could script history this time,” said Kodiyeri.
What they say
Seat-sharing talks are in the final phase. We will announce seats for allies by March 3. The final draft of our poll manifesto too will be ready by then - Ramesh Chennithala, Opposition leader
The selection of candidates in Congress is in the final stages at present - Mullappally Ramachandran, KPCC president
The Left has great chances of staying in power. the five-year rule of the Pinarayi government would be the biggest asset for the front, while going to the polls - A Vijayaraghavan, LDF convener
Unlike Oommen Chandy, the Pinarayi regime cancelled controversial deals when public criticism cropped up. That the Left takes people into confidence is why we believe it can script history this time - Kodiyeri Balakrishnan, CPM politburo member
The candidate selection in the BJP would be completed by next week - K Surendran, BJP state president
