KOCHI: One aspect that caught the eye this general election in Kerala was the long queues of women at several polling booths. As the results declaration day draws closer, the candidates and their parties are busy crunching numbers and deciphering the source of the votes that may have been polled in their favour.
It is then hardly surprising that the mainstream fronts are banking on the higher turnout of female voters to win the numbers game, especially with the overall polling percentage having declined in comparison to previous Lok Sabha elections.
Out of the 1,97,77,478 voters who exercised their franchise on April 26, as many as 1,03,02,238 were female voters, constituting about 52% of the votes polled. While 71.87% of the women voted, the corresponding figure for men is lower at 70.62%. Even as parties attempt to calculate where the women’s votes have gone, which could potentially decide the verdict, political observers feel the trend is difficult to predict as women are not as politically inclined as men.
The state had witnessed a high turnout of women -- 78.8%, compared to 76.47% for men -- in the 2019 LS polls, held in the backdrop of protests over the Supreme Court verdict allowing women of all ages entry to the Sabarimala temple. This significant turnout favoured the UDF, resulting in an almost clean sweep of 19 out of 20 seats.
In 2014, the figures were almost even at 73.84% for women and 73.96% for men, with UDF winning 12 seats and LDF eight. Interestingly, in the 2004 polls where LDF won 18 seats, leaving UDF and NDA with one seat each, the women voter turnout (69.26%) was lower than men (73.54%). The overall polling percentage was 71.48.
In 2009, it was UDF which won more seats even when the women voter turnout (72.66%) was lower than men (74.13%). With the overall polling percentage being 73.37, UDF won 16 seats and LDF four.
Several issues such as the pending distribution of welfare pensions, non-availability of subsidy items in state-owned Supplyco, unemployment, tax hikes, and corruption charges against the government may have drawn the women voters to polling booths, and they registered their anger through votes. UDF is relying on such a theory while BJP hopes that women would have voted for a change against the two conventional political fronts in the state.
Ruling out the anti-incumbency factor, LDF expects women’s votes to favour its government, which won a consecutive term for the first time in the history of the state.
“Unlike men, women may cast their votes cutting across party lines. Considering the current political scenario, there are possibilities of voting against the ruling front because of the anti-incumbency factor,” said a veteran observer who preferred to remain anonymous.
However, psephologist Sajad Ibrahim K M, a professor with the department of Political Science, Kerala University, said the specific factors behind the higher women voter turnout could be ascertained only after a detailed verification of data.
According to him, the number of women voters has become higher as many male voters have opted to stay away from voting in recent times.
“Already, the number of female electors is higher in our state,” Sajad added.
The state’s male-female ratio in the electoral roll is 1,000:1,068.