THRISSUR: CPM’s victory in the Chelakkara assembly by-election is a significant boost for the party, but it also indicates the shifting landscape in Kerala politics. The win suggests that future elections will be three-cornered contests, with the NDA’s vote share growing and gaining critical mass over time.
U R Pradeep’s win, although with a reduced mandate, compared with K Radhakrishnan’s 39,400-vote margin in the 2021 assembly election, is expected to bolster the confidence of the Left front. This is particularly significant given the strong anti-incumbency sentiment and protests over delays in welfare-pension distribution, paddy procurement and other benefits.
By retaining the seat, which fell vacant after Radhakrishnan’s win in the Alathur Lok Sabha seat, the CPM has demonstrated that the constituency’s loyalty extends beyond personal charisma.
A former legislator from Chelakkara, Pradeep increased his majority from 10,200 in 2016 to 12,201, despite the lower voter turnout and strong competition from the UDF and the NDA.
Pradeep led throughout the counting process -- from postal ballots to all the 13 rounds -- consistently increasing his lead with each passing round. Notably, the CPM managed to lead in three panchayats -- Kondazhi, Thiruvilwamala and Pazhayannur -- currently held by the UDF. In Thiruvilwamala, the UDF fell to third place behind the NDA candidate K Balakrishnan, who is also vice president of the panchayat.
The NDA can take comfort in its consistently increasing vote share, now at 21.49%, up from 15.68% in 2021. In 2011, BJP candidate V A Krishnakumar managed to garner just 5.3% of the total votes polled. Balakrishnan secured 33,609 votes, a significant increase from the 28,974 votes polled by T N Sarassu in the 2024 Lok Sabha election.
The Democratic Movement of Kerala (DMK) candidate, N K Sudheer, secured close to 4,000 votes in his maiden outing. His campaign was personally led by P V Anvar.
Ramya Haridas’ efforts in Chelakkara didn’t quite pay off, despite the UDF leadership’s best efforts towards the end of the campaign. Although she couldn’t sway the anti-incumbency votes, Ramya did manage to increase her vote count from 44,105 in 2021 to 52,137 this time around, a notable increase of 8,032 votes.
What’s got Congress worried, though, is the erosion of votes in certain panchayats that have traditionally favoured the party. T N Prathapan, KPCC working president, acknowledged the people’s verdict while pointing out that the reduced majority - from 39,000 to 12,000 - reflects the anti-incumbency sentiments in the state.