THIRUVANANTHAPURAM: Sudden weather changes are hardly ever good. One moment, it’s sunny outside, and the next it looks like it will rain, heavily. Thankfully, there is a solution — an advanced weather app that offers real-time insights on such changes.
The new mobile app, to be launched by the Institute for Climate Change Studies (ICCS) under the Kerala State Council for Science, Technology and Environment (KSCSTE) this year, can issue early warnings for extreme rainfall and related events, including landslides, thereby allowing, among other things, improved disaster preparedness.
The Kerala Startup Mission is developing an app that will offer location-specific forecasts based on cumulative rainfall, one of the main triggers for rain-related disasters like landslides and floods.
Accurate regional prediction of extreme rainfall events has long been a challenge due to uncertainties in weather model predictions. The new app aims to overcome this by integrating ground-based rainfall observations and satellite data to provide timely and localised alerts.
“Before the massive Wayanad landslides last year, the region experienced several days of extreme rainfall. It’s the cumulative effect that triggers such disasters. Our app will use 15 days of rainfall data from local observatories to send out early warnings based on cumulative rainfall in a given area. This will greatly enhance public preparedness,” said ICCS director K Rajendran.
While the India Meteorological Department (IMD) provides 24-hour rainfall updates and short-term forecasts at present, the new app will go further by offering real-time insights on cumulative rainfall.
The new app will also feature the ‘nowcasting’ technique developed by ICCS scientists in collaboration with IITs in Madras and Palakkad as well as Purdue University. Published in PLOS Climate, an open-access journal for multidisciplinary climate research, the method analyses early microphysical cloud signatures – like the cloud droplet size and temperature – to predict extreme rainfall events up to six hours in advance with 93% accuracy.
“Unlike conventional forecasts, our approach can ‘nowcast’ extreme rainfall with over 93% accuracy and a lead time of at least six hours. This will help save lives, especially in regions like the Western Ghats,” said K P Sudheer, KSCSTE executive vice-president and principal secretary, science and technology.
He said ICCS is planning to sign a memorandum of understanding with IMD for data sharing. Kerala is expected to receive heavy monsoon rainfall between June and September. Though the plan was to release the app before the season’s onset, delays in development pushed the deadline.
“KSUM has sought 70 days to complete the app’s development; we are aiming for launch before September. We are also planning to make this app a platform that integrates all available rain data managed by various departments and even private agencies,” Rajendran said.
As per the IMD data, between 2001 and 2018, Kerala recorded 222 heavy rainfall events, including 32 extreme ones where daily rainfall crossed 204.4mm.