THIRUVANANTHAPURAM: With weeks to go for counting of votes, the three fronts have begun internal assessment of their winning prospects. Poll strategists say this election could mark the beginning of the end of the state’s long-standing bipolar political system, traditionally dominated by the LDF and UDF.
Signs of a shift have been visible since the 2016 assembly elections, when the BJP-led NDA began marking its strong presence in Kerala’s political landscape. After opening its account in the state assembly, the NDA consolidated its presence by securing close to a 20 percent vote share and winning a seat in the 2024 Parliament elections.
The emerging three-cornered contest is now seen as a potential turning point, with political observers closely watching whether the NDA can translate its growing vote share into a more decisive role in the state’s electoral politics.
“In the last Lok Sabha election, the BJP had an advantage in 40 assembly segments and showcased a strong performance in one-third of the constituencies,” said an RSS think tank.
“In six districts, BJP secured over 20 percent vote share in the last local body election. This election will prove how acceptable the BJP is to Kerala voters unless a massive wave occurs in favour of the UDF.”
BJP leaders think that if the party sustains its growth, NDA would win close to 5-10 seats. “It may also finish runner-up in several constituencies. If the BJP secures 20 percent vote share, there would be a hung assembly,” he said.
According to political analysts, LDF had secured more seats in 88 constituencies spread across eight districts- Thiruvananthapuram, Kollam, Alappuzha, Pathanamthitta, Thrissur, Palakkad, Kozhikode and Kannur in the last assembly election.
The UDF could win 11 seats in the 2021 assembly poll from these districts. Similarly last time, the UDF could win over 30 seats in the 52 constituencies spread across six districts- Kasaragod, Wayanad, Malappuram, Ernakulam, Kottayam, and Idukki. Political parties say that a minority consolidation in favour of the UDF has occurred in these districts this time as well.
“However, to come back to power, the UDF has to increase its tally to 40-45 seats in the eight districts where LDF has a majority of seats. It should also increase its seats to 35-40 in those six districts. The BJP’s role will be decisive in the eight districts as it is expected to perform well and win seats,” said a political analyst.