THIRUVANANTHAPURAM: Though the official preliminary poll review of the BJP will be held only after Monday following the return of party state president Rajeev Chandrasekhar to the state, both BJP and RSS have pinned hopes on key constituencies such as Kazhakootam, Nemom, Kattakada, Attingal, Manjeswaram, Thrissur and Palakkad. Also there are Malampuzha, Manalur, Aranmula and Chathannoor constituencies in the secondary list. “The party is expected to perform well in Kozhikode South, North and Beypore,” said a BJP leader.
Both CPM and NDA dismissed the UDF’s claim of being the sole beneficiary of anti-incumbency. They argue that barring the minority-dominated districts such as Kasaragod, Malappuram, Wayanad, Kottayam, and Idukki, the anti- incumbency votes will be split between NDA and UDF. “The only factor which may prevent our victory in certain seats is the silent wave favouring the UDF, which we didn’t feel in the southern district where Hindus are in majority,” the leader said.
The Congress, set to begin its post poll review meetings after Vishu, remains confident of returning to power. “We expect 80-85 seats. If a silent anti-incumbency wave persists, we may get close to 100,” said a Congress leader. The UDF is solely banking on consolidation of Christian- Muslim minority dominant constituencies. “In 2021, UDF suffered a setback in central Kerala. That has gone by now.
Even the traditional LDF voters showed lethargy, which will help us. BJP could secure the anti-incumbency votes in constituencies where it had a chance. Elsewhere they favoured the UDF,” he added. The front is also eying gains in southern Kerala.
“In Thiruvananthapuram and Kollam districts, the UDF will win in over 11 seats,” said a Congress leader.
“In Alappuzha, the tally may rise to around four. In Pathanamthitta, where we drew a blank last time, we expect three seats.” However, Congress leaders admit that the party could not effectively campaign on the five guarantees announced by Rahul Gandhi, particularly health insurance, which they think would have been helpful.
The LDF, meanwhile, is banking on five key factors. “The CPM has recovered early from the setback it suffered in the local body polls. Government projects are visible on the ground, strengthening the development narrative,” said a CPM leader. He added that the popularity of sitting MLAs and the relatively low anti-incumbency factor also worked in LDF’s favour. “There was some cadre fatigue in a few districts, but it was quickly addressed.”
This is the first election in over three decades in which the CPM has faced unparalleled internal dissent with three former MLAs and two district leaders quitting the party to join the UDF.
However, CPM leaders say the revolt in Taliparamba and Payyanur has in fact, helped the party in Kannur with organisation becoming united. The leadership, though, is wary of setbacks in Kozhikode and Kollam.
“In Kasaragod we expect to retain the sitting seats. Thrissur will deliver good results. In Palakkad, except Mannarkkad, we have a strong chance in most seats,” said a CPM state secretariat member. The CPM believes that, in Kottayam and Idukki, Kerala Congress faces a tough challenge. “But, we are hopeful about Pala,” he said, adding that the LDF is aiming for six seats in Kottayam.
In Alappuzha, while some leaders are cautious about Ambalappuzha, CPM candidate H Salam expressed confidence. The party believes that BJP’s growing presence in the district would hurt UDF’s prospects. In Thiruvananthapuram where the CPM faces stiff contests in Nemom, Kazhakootam and Kattakada, leaders remain optimistic. “We will win at least five seats in an adverse situation,” said a party leader.