THIRUVANANTHAPURAM: A below-normal southwest monsoon forecast for India has triggered concerns in Kerala, as the state faces the risk of water stress if the rainfall distribution is unfavourable.
The preliminary outlook by the India Meteorological Department (IMD) based on the expected development of an El Nino event, points to reduced rainfall during the southwest monsoon in most parts of the country, including Kerala.
In 2025, Kerala received a total rainfall of 1,752.7 mm against a normal rainfall of 2,018.6mm recording a deficit of 13%.
However, experts said El Nino does not weaken monsoon every year.
“Historical trends suggest that nearly 55% of such years have seen below-normal rainfall across India. However, drought is not determined by rainfall deficit alone. The spatial and temporal distribution of rainfall is equally critical,” said IMD director Neetha K Gopal. She said even with reduced total rainfall, an even spread across the four-month monsoon season could prevent major water stress.
“If rainfall is concentrated over a short period and followed by prolonged dry spells, it could adversely affect groundwater recharge, reservoirs and overall water availability,” she said.
With the El Nino threat looming large, experts said a weak pre-monsoon rainfall could adversely impact Kerala.
“Unlike 2025, when consistent rains from March aided groundwater recharge and mitigated mid-season dry spells, this year has seen subdued pre-monsoon activity so far, with no significant rainfall expected,” Neetha said.
Still, past experiences suggest that the impact depends heavily on rainfall distribution. In both 2024 and 2025, Kerala managed to avoid major water shortage despite variations in total rainfall, owing to favourable distribution across the season.