KOCHI: A sharp slowdown in demand for overseas education is forcing many study-abroad consultancies in Kerala to shut offices, scale down operations, and diversify into sectors such as manpower recruitment and tourism, signalling a major shift in a sector that once thrived on migration dreams.
Industry insiders said the downturn, driven by tighter immigration policies, global uncertainties, rising costs, and weakening job prospects abroad, has significantly dented the once-booming business. What was until recently a fast-growing ecosystem of agencies facilitating admissions, visas, and travel is now witnessing closures, layoffs, and consolidation.
“Even well-established consultancies that expanded during the boom are now closing branches. The dip is almost 80%, leaving the industry on the brink,” said Sajith Thomas, education expert and career coach. “Today, only those determined to go abroad at any cost are approaching consultants, often opting for lesser-known destinations like Lithuania or Georgia. Many end up paying huge sums to institutions with little reputation,” Sajith said.
According to him, the nature of demand itself has undergone a change. Students are no longer chasing top-ranked universities as much as they are looking for easier entry routes into foreign countries. “That is a worrying trend. Students compromise on quality, and the long-term outcome becomes uncertain,” he said.
Consultancies, meanwhile, attribute the slowdown not just to policy changes but also to global instability.
“Wars have had a major impact. From Ukraine to the Gulf, geopolitical tensions are affecting student mobility,” said Denny Thomas Vattakunnel, chairman and MD of Santa Monica.
‘Agencies venture into manpower services, other biz to stay afloat’
According to him, the market has declined by 30-40%, with a further 20% drop recorded this year compared to last. “There has been a consistent downward trend over the past two to three years. Last year, we had around 9,000 students.
The next intake remains uncertain as the market is only slowly opening up,” he said.
Echoing similar concerns, Mano K M of Empire Overseas Education said many agencies are now branching into manpower services and other businesses to stay afloat. “The wars and global disruptions that led to students being stranded have made parents more cautious. This has directly impacted application numbers,” he said, estimating a 35% dip over the past two years.
He also pointed to another structural issue — the unchecked proliferation of consultancies. “There is no proper regulatory mechanism for overseas education consultancies. Unlike manpower agencies, which require a Protector of Emigrants (PoE) licence from the Ministry of External Affairs, anyone can start an education consultancy. This has led to unhealthy competition and questionable practices,” Mano said.
Experts say such gaps have also enabled misleading promises. “Students are often told they can manage expenses through part-time jobs. But once they reach these countries, many struggle to find work and end up depending on their families for survival,” Sajith said, citing multiple such cases.
Sajith also warned of a looming financial risk for families. “In the next two to three years, Kerala could see a surge in education loans turning into non-performing assets. A significant number of students fail to secure stable jobs abroad and are eventually forced to return home, leaving families burdened with debt,” he said.
While traditional destinations like Canada continue to attract students, the landscape has changed significantly. “Canada is now prioritising skill-based courses. Students pursuing fields like engineering, artificial intelligence, design, and healthcare have better prospects for jobs and permanent residency,” Denny said. “Those who opted for generic courses earlier are finding it difficult to stay back,” he said.
Financial factors are also playing a role. Sandya Vasudevan, board member and distinguished fellow at Asia Research, said geopolitical tensions, stricter visa scrutiny, and the depreciation of the rupee have affected student loan applications and disbursals, particularly for countries like the US and Canada.
“Students are also exploring alternative destinations in Europe, Asia, and other lower-cost locations,” she said. “The focus is increasingly on migration pathways — shorter programmes, multiple degrees, and hybrid learning models combining online and campus education,” she added.