THIRUVANANTHAPURAM: Even as Kerala reels under scorching sun with heatwave warnings issued in various districts, several international weather models indicate an early arrival of the southwest monsoon in the state.
According to the forecast from the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), the monsoon could arrive in South India by the end of May.
Meanwhile, weather experts said Kerala may fare better despite below-normal southwest monsoon outlook by India Meteorological Department (IMD).
M G Manoj, scientist at Advanced Centre for Atmospheric Radar Research, Cusat, told the TNIE that long-range forecasts have not yet specified the exact date of monsoon onset. “We can only comment on whether the monsoon will arrive early or late, usually by the first or second week of May,” he said.
‘Clearer signs of monsoon expected around mid-May’
In response to the ECMWF forecast suggesting an early onset, Manoj said clearer signals of monsoon are expected only around mid-May. “Typically, the monsoon sets in over Kerala around June 1, with a variation of about a week on either side. There is no strict requirement that it must begin only in June,” he said.
He said Kerala and parts of the west coast are expected to be in a relatively better position. “The distribution is likely to be heterogeneous. It does not mean all regions will receive uniformly deficient rainfall. Compared to central India, the west coast, including Kerala, may see comparatively better rainfall during the southwest monsoon,” the official said.
Unlike earlier fears that El Nino would impact southwest monsoon, weather experts are hopeful as current models suggest that the early phase from May to June could be relatively good.
Weather expert Rajeevan Erikkulam said most weather models suggest positive signals. “Westerly winds are expected to become active after mid-May, which could support rainfall. The uncertainty is more in August, when the El Nino impact may become stronger. The first half of the southwest monsoon season appears safer,” said Rajeevan.
Meanwhile, IMD director Neetha K Gopal told the TNIE that IMD’s official forecast on southwest monsoon will come out by mid-May. “We are expecting above normal pre-monsoon showers in May. We are closely monitoring the situation,” she said.
Heatwave situation prevails
The heatwave situation continued in Kerala on Friday, with Palakkad recording 39.7 degrees Celsius followed by Punalur (38.6), Kozhikode (38), Vellanikara (37.7) and Kochi airport (36.8). IMD has predicted a rise in temperatures till Sunday.
Between March 16 and April 23, around 33 heat-related incidents, including one suspected sunstroke death, have been reported in the state.