THIRUVANANTHAPURAM: As three Rajya Sabha (RS) seats are set to fall vacant by next April, discussions have begun in the CPM over possible options before the party. Going by its current strength in the assembly, the LDF is not in a comfortable position to win an RS seat. The party has started weighing options for a difficult election to the Upper House, where the BJP’s decision on whether to take part in the voting could determine who gets the third of the three seats.
The RS terms of IUML’s P V Abdul Wahab and CPM’s John Brittas and V Sivadasan end on April 23, 2027. The UDF, with 102 MLAs, is comfortably placed to win two seats. The LDF, with 35 MLAs, needs one more vote to win the third seat if all 140 members of the assembly cast their votes. This is where the BJP’s three MLAs could become important. If they abstain, the number of valid votes will fall to 137 and the quota will come down to 35, allowing the LDF to win the third seat.
Under the formula used for RS elections, the quota is calculated by dividing the valid votes by the number of vacancies plus one and adding one to the result. With 140 MLAs voting, the quota would be 36. The BJP therefore finds itself in an unusual position. Though it does not have the numbers to win a seat, its decision to participate or stay away could have a direct bearing on the result. If all 140 MLAs vote, the LDF’s additional vote could come through cross-voting. The BJP legislators, therefore, hold the key.
For the CPM, however, a BJP abstention would carry its own political risk. If the LDF wins the seat because the BJP stays away, the UDF could use it to allege an understanding between the CPM and the BJP. “The CPM has always taken the position that it would not seek the help of the BJP at any cost,” said a CPM central committee member. “It’s a tricky situation. However, anything can happen in politics,” he added.
Cross-voting is not without precedent in Kerala’s RS elections. In 1964, the Congress suffered a setback when some of its MLAs voted for independent candidate Salay Mohammed Sait, who was subsequently elected.
The CPM is also looking beyond the BJP factor as it prepares for the election. If all parties vote according to their current strength, the party could be reduced to a lone member in the Rajya Sabha, A A Rahim. The CPM currently has four members in the Lok Sabha, including K Radhakrishnan from Kerala.
Within the LDF, the party could also face a claim from the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), which has objected to the practice of sharing Rajya Sabha seats between the CPM and the CPI. The two had earlier argued that with the communist parties’ representation in Parliament declining, they should be given a Rajya Sabha seat to enable it to play a larger role there. The vacant seat was eventually allotted to the CPI.
