KOCHI: With some climate models predicting the possibility of the El Niño event intensifying into one of the strongest in history with a sea surface temperature anomaly ranging from 2.5 to 3 degrees Celsius, climate scientists say India will be facing a warm winter and a harsh summer in 2027.
Sharing their views with TNIE, Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM) climate scientist Roxy Mathew Koll and National Institute of Oceanography former director S Prasannakumar opined that 2027 could be among the hottest years for the country.
El Niño is a complex weather pattern that weakens or reverses trade winds, leading to the warming of the sea surface waters in central and eastern tropical Pacific ocean. According to weather agencies, El Niño has strengthened over the past month, causing sea surface temperature anomalies of more than 1 degree Celsius.
“The concern this time is that a rapidly strengthening El Niño is occurring over an ocean and atmosphere already warmed by climate change. There is a high chance that it will become an exceptionally strong event in the next few months, raising temperatures and altering rainfall patterns across the globe,” Roxy said.
“The risks for India are a weaker and uneven monsoon, longer dry spells, heat stress, water and crop stress, and food-price pressures. The total amount of rainfall that Kerala receives during the monsoon season may be lower because of weaker monsoon winds.
Even during a weak monsoon, a warm Arabian Sea and favourable weather systems can produce short spells of very heavy rain, flash floods and landslides — hence we need to be prepared for both extremes,” he said.
According to Prasannakumar, the intensity of the current El Niño will be similar to the third largest event in history (1997-98).
“The 2026-27 El Niño is still evolving and is expected to peak during late autumn or early winter (October–December 2026). Some models have predicted its intensity between 2.5 and 3 degrees Celsius, which may make it the strongest in history,” he said.
“The most important impact of El Niño will be the Indian monsoon. The deficit rainfall would lead to moderate drought in central and northwestern India, lower reservoir storage, reduced river discharge, declining groundwater level and water shortages in drought-prone regions. Higher air temperatures could cause more frequent and intense heat waves.” Prasannakumar said.
And what will be the impact of the El Niño on Indian summer? Roxy said summer will be harsh, with the mercury likely to soar during the March-May period.
“The north Indian Ocean often warms during and after a strong El Niño, with the warmness sometimes persisting into the following spring. However, this does not mean that an intense summer will begin in November.
Kerala will still pass through its normal post-monsoon and winter seasons. The risk of higher temperatures may become more evident during the pre-monsoon months of March–May 2027. It is quite possible that 2027 could be among the hottest years in the instrumental record,” he said.
“El Niño is expected to persist at least until early spring 2027. It is expected to strengthen through late 2026, likely peak around the end of the year, and then gradually weaken during 2027, though the timing of its decline remains uncertain. Even if the Pacific event weakens, residual warming of the Indian Ocean can continue to influence the atmosphere and the monsoon.”
The impact of El Niño on the Arabian Sea, which is already warming rapidly, can make the summer harsh, said Prasannakumar. “The El Niño event is still evolving and growing. It is expected to peak during late autumn or early winter (October–December 2026) and would last up to early spring (March-April). This extended heating will make the 2026 winter warmer and the residual heat accumulation from this will augment the 2027 summer, making it more severe. El Niño is expected to retreat or become neutral by April–June 2027.”