THIRUVANANTHAPURAM: In Kerala, Hindu and Christian communities are recording more deaths than births in a year, registering a negative Natural Growth Rate (NGR). A decadal analysis of official data showed that the gap between births and deaths among these communities in the state is widening.
Kerala’s overall natural growth rate now remains in positive territory because of the Muslim population, which records more births than deaths. For NGR calculation, the absolute numbers of births and deaths were taken from the economics and statistics department’s annual Vital Statistics Reports from 2014 to 2023.
In 2023, the latest year for which the vital statistics report is available, Kerala’s overall natural growth rate — births minus deaths per 100 population — was 0.249%. Hindus recorded -0.115% and Christians -0.084%.
A negative natural growth rate means a community is no longer replacing itself through births alone. For Hindus, it was the second consecutive year in negative territory, and for Christians, the third. Hindu NGR, which turned negative for the first time in 2022 (-0.080%) worsened further to -0.115% in 2023, while Christians have been in negative territory since 2021 (-0.095%), reaching -0.084% in 2023.
“Hindu and Christian communities are leading Kerala’s slide towards a negative natural growth rate,” said Dr Anil Chandran S, assistant professor, department of demography, University of Kerala.
“The population decline in these groups began with upper-class communities decades ago,” he said.
‘Kerala’s population growth projected to turn -ve by 2041’
“Projections suggest that Kerala’s overall NGR will turn negative by 2041. As Kerala becomes an ageing society, the communities that crossed into negative territory first will face its consequences first,” said Anil Chandran.
While Muslims recorded a positive natural growth rate, it has been declining over the decade. It fell by 35% over 10 years, from 1.898% in 2014 to 1.229% in 2023.
According to Anil Chandran, the Muslim community is also on the same trajectory. “The birth rate and natural growth rate of Muslims are also declining. It will also record negative figures within two decades of Kerala’s overall NGR turning negative,” he added.
The numbers clearly show the demographic trends.
Hindu births fell from 2,31,031 in 2014 to 1,58,399 in 2023 — a drop of nearly 31%. The deaths climbed from 1,50,159 to 1,80,971 during the period.
Christian births fell by 32%, from 83,616 to 56,810, as deaths rose by 24% -- from 50,095 in 2014 to 62,338 in 2023. Muslim births declined by 19.3%, from 2,18,437 to 1,76,312. Deaths rose 28.1%, from 46,468 to 59,541 during the decade. Still, births remain well above deaths, keeping the community in positive territory for now.