THIRUVANANTHAPURAM: The southwest monsoon has lost momentum with the state recording a rainfall deficit of 7%, raising concerns over the impact of El Nino.
According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), Kerala received 283.3 mm of rainfall between June 1 and June 15 against the normal 303.4 mm. The shortfall was particularly pronounced in high-range districts of Idukki and Wayanad, both of which recorded a 30% and 38% rainfall deficit during the period.
IMD director Neetha K Gopal said the decline was in line with earlier forecasts.
“The forecast for June was for below-normal rainfall and the current trend is consistent with that outlook. We do not see any low-pressure systems or depressions developing in the near future that could significantly improve rainfall,” she said.
Neetha said the overall seasonal rainfall pattern was being influenced by El Nino conditions, which typically suppress monsoon activity over the Indian subcontinent.
“Monsoon rainfall naturally alternates between active and weak phases. During El Nino years, the weak phases tend to become more frequent and prolonged, resulting in below-normal seasonal rainfall,” she said.
According to the IMD, weak westerly winds have resulted in rainfall being concentrated largely over coastal regions, leaving parts of the high ranges relatively dry.
It said the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), a key tropical weather pattern that often supports the formation of rain-bearing systems over the Indian Ocean, is currently neither in a favourable phase nor is it expected to become supportive over the next two weeks.
“We are expecting some improvement in rainfall activity between June 19 and 22. Rainfall during the remainder of the month is expected to remain largely in the light-to-moderate category, with no indications of widespread heavy rain events,” Neetha said.