KOCHI: Amid high expectations in the upcoming assembly polls, a cluster of constituencies which have been decided by wafer-thin margins in the past are posing a challenge to political fronts and parties as they calculate their chances.
In elections where every vote counts and victories are celebrated with fanfare, slips between the cup and the lip -- often decided by a handful of votes -- turn such assembly seats into key battlegrounds, which can swing either way or deliver larger margins this time.
Around 22 constituencies fall into this zone of uncertainty, going by a victory margin of under 4,000 votes. Among them, six seats were decided by margins of less than 1,000 votes.
The close contests have tested the nerves of several key leaders, including ministers V Abdurahiman, Kadannappally Ramachandran and M B Rajesh, KPCC president Sunny Joseph, and MLAs Najeeb Kanthapuram, P V Sreenijin, Sujith Vijayanpillai and Kovoor Kunjumon—all of whom are gearing up to contest again from the same constituencies. In seats like Koduvally and Tripunithura, the absence of seasoned leaders M K Muneer and K Babu owing to health concerns adds a new layer of unpredictability.
Triangular contests, political volatility, and the charisma of candidates have played a decisive role in many constituencies. In 2021, as many as 22 constituencies — 11 in central Kerala, six in the south, and five in the northern districts — saw narrow margins of under 4,000 votes.
Among those, several were won by razor-thin margins, with the victors including IUML’s Najeeb Kanthapuram in Perinthalmanna (38 votes), CPM’s K P Kunhammad Kutty in Kuttiady (333 votes), IUML’s A K M Ashraf in Manjeswar (745 votes), CPI’s P Balachandran in Thrissur (946 votes), LDF independent V Abdurahiman in Thanur (985 votes), and Congress’ K Babu in Tripunithura (992 votes).
Constituencies like Manjeswar in Kasaragod district and Perinthalmanna in Malappuram district—both won by IUML candidates—had witnessed intense contests in the 2016 elections as well, with P B Abdul Razak (89 votes) and Manjalamkuzhi Ali (579 votes), respectively, prevailing by tiny margins.
“Taking into account the six seats the Muslim League won with margins ranging between 6,000 and 8,000 votes, and the narrow loss in Tanur by less than 1,000 votes, the party is assessing the situation seriously. So they expanded connections with SDPI, Jama’at-e-Islami, and even the Samastha Kanthapuram faction,” said political analyst M R Ajayan, adding that these factors are expected to reflect in the upcoming election results.
Constituencies such as Kuttiady, Thrissur, Tanur, Tripunithura, Peerumade, and Azhikkode have witnessed narrow victory margins over the past three consecutive polls.
Independents hold fort
A majority of the ‘wafer-thin constituencies’ are concentrated in Malappuram, Ernakulam, Palakkad and Thrissur districts. In Malappuram, widely regarded as an IUML stronghold, the LDF mounted direct contests by fielding CPM candidates or party-backed independents, yielding results in seats like Ponnani, Tanur, Thavanur, Perinthalmanna and Mankada.
“Even in politically significant constituencies, these razor-thin victories are often determined by the candidature of efficient and publicly accepted independent candidates,” Ajayan said.