THIRUVANANTHAPURAM: Who has the decisive edge in the coming elections? Opinions may differ based on politics, governance, performance, past history, quick developments, or new trends. Yet, an in-depth study into poll data does provide a new perspective. Going by the electoral pattern in the past three assembly polls—post 2008 delimitation—there are a bunch of constituencies that have often bucked the general trend, stood loyal to a political front, and in turn played the most decisive role in electing the next government.
A detailed analysis shows the ruling Left front enjoys considerable backing in close to 35% of seats while the opposition front can claim similar dominance in only about half.
Of the 140 seats that go into polls, a large chunk of 51 seats have remained with the LDF in all three elections—2011, 2016 and 2021. Of these, CPM holds considerable sway in 39 seats, while 12 remain CPI fortresses.
On the other hand, the UDF has 26 sure-shot seats, with Muslim League’s share being 16 and the Congress’ 12. Though the Kerala Congress has a few seats it has consistently won during the period, splits and subsequent switchovers make them difficult to account. A similar previous assessment shows that before delimitation, too, the trend existed.
But the number of constituencies that stood in the way of regime change were relatively less. Of the 26 seats that consistently stood with either fronts for close to two and a half decades from 1982 to 2006, as many as 16 were Left bastions, while 10 were UDF strongholds. In 2008, after boundaries were redrawn, a number of new constituencies came into existence, with parties and in some cases certain candidates keeping a steady hold on them.
With 51 almost-certain seats in its kitty, the LDF holds a position of advantage, while the task remains tougher for UDF. Data shows the Left, irrespective of external factors, has dedicated vote bases in considerable regions, said political strategist Amitabh Tiwari of VoteVibe, a research and analysis agency that compiled the data.
Noticeably, most of the Left bastions are in and around the communist citadels of Kannur and Alappuzha. On the other hand, the League seats are mostly in Malabar region, while Congress strongholds are concentrated in central Kerala. Curiously, none of the fronts or parties enjoy consistent backing in a majority of seats down south. In short, it is southern Kerala that often takes the call on which front should govern the state. Backed by a potential advantage from sure-shot constituencies, a third consecutive term has become an achievable target for the Left, said political commentator N M Pearson.
“It’s curious to see how the Left has cleverly converted the anti-incumbency sentiment into a pro-incumbency factor, in favour of its sitting MLAs. In a keenly fought election like this, especially with just two weeks remaining for voting, the sitting MLAs’ familiarity with voters would prove to be an added advantage,” he said.
The ‘sure-shot seats’ have certain discrepancies too. Of the 39 CPM seats, it lost two in bypolls: 2012 Neyyatinkara bypoll where then CPM MLA R Selvaraj contested and won on a Congress ticket and the 2019 Aroor bypoll where Congress’ Shanimol Usman emerged victorious.
Similarly, the scenario may change this time, due to obvious factors in some seats, like Ambalapuzha where veteran G Sudhakaran left CPM to contest as an independent or Payyanur where CPM leader V Kunjikrishnan parted ways to contest as a UDF-backed independent, or Kottarakkara where three-term sitting CPM legislator Aisha Potty is now the Congress candidate.
Though not to the same extent, the UDF too could suffer a setback. In Peravoor, where Congress state chief Sunny Joseph, the sitting MLA, takes on CPM’s popular woman leader K K Shailaja, and in Palakkad, where post the Rahul Mamkootathil fiasco the Congress faces a strong challenge from the Left and BJP’s popular leader Sobha Surendran, voters may choose to buck the trend.
Such factors are in play in CPI bastions as well. In at least three of these seats, the BJP hopes to make it big.
