KOCHI: The defeat of K Surendran and Sobha Surendran — two aggressive leaders who have consistently increased the party’s vote share in each election — has disappointed the BJP state unit and a section of party leaders opine that the chance of the party have grown grim in Manjeshwar and Palakkad. Leaders point out that the shift of CPM votes to UDF has been increasing in these constituencies, which indicate a growing trend of consolidation of anti -BJP votes towards the UDF.
According to BJP workers, the vote share of CPM in Manjeshwar declined from 40,639 in 2021 to 21,212 in 2026. Though BJP’s vote share increased from 65,013 to 67,696, the margin of Muslim League candidate increased from 2,683 to 29,190. As CPM’s tally decreased by 19,427 votes, League’s vote share rose to 96,948.
“Surendran had reached the constituency two months in advance and had aggressively campaigned, which ensured that BJP secured around 90% of the Hindu votes. But, as the BJP expressed confidence of winning Manjeshwar, Muslim votes consolidated in favour of the Muslim League.
So Muslim voters who traditionally voted for the CPM have shifted to the Muslim League. Around 56% of the voters in Manjeshwar are Muslims while the Hindu population is around 42%. The Christian voters form only 2% of the population. This consolidation proves that BJP cannot win in Manjeshwar,” said a party leader.
However, Surendran says he cannot ditch the voters in Manjeshwar who have consistently supported him. “We lost around 15,000 votes due to SIR, while there was an increase in Muslim votes. The IUML was able to consolidate votes by making SDPI candidate to withdraw his nomination and ensuring support of various groups including Kanthapuram Sunnis,” he said.
In Palakkad, Sobha Surendran was confident of her victory as there was an unprecedented unity among party workers. The support of Muslim voters in Pirayiri and Kannadi panchayats played a key role in ensuring the victory of the UDF, but the BJP hoped that Sobha will be able to garner the support of women voters and it will help overcome the consolidation. However, the BJP polled around 5,000 votes less than its booth level assessment in Palakkad municipal area where the Hindu population is 68%.
“We polled 10,363 votes more than the previous election, but the CPM’s vote share declined by around 3,300 votes which benefited the Congress candidate,” said Sobha Surendran.
Party leaders feel Surendran and Sobha should have contested from Central Kerala which would have benefited the BJP in adjoining constituencies also. Surendran had polled 2,95,627 votes in Pathanamthitta Lok Sabha seat in 2019 which was double the tally in 2014. However, the vote share declined to 2,34,406 in 2024.
Similarly, Sobha Surendran had increased the BJP vote share in Alappuzha Lok Sabha seat from 1,87,729 in 2019 to 2,99,638 in 2024. She was able to poll more votes than the LDF in Kayamkulam.