The southwest monsoon is likely to set in early over Kerala on May 26, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said in its forecast on Friday.
The monsoon, the country’s primary rain-bearing system, usually reaches Kerala around June 1 before advancing northwards to cover the rest of India. Its arrival in the state marks the beginning of the southwest monsoon season, which runs from June to September.
Last year, the monsoon onset in Kerala was recorded on May 24.
“This year, the southwest monsoon is likely to set in over Kerala on May 26 with a model error of ± 4 days (could occur four days before or after),” the IMD said.
The weather office also said conditions are favourable for the monsoon’s further advance over parts of the South Bay of Bengal, the Andaman Sea, and the Andaman and Nicobar Islands over the next 24 hours.
“The advance of the southwest monsoon over the Indian mainland is marked by monsoon onset over Kerala and is an important indicator characterising the transition from the hot and dry season to the rainy season,” the IMD said.
“As the monsoon progresses northward, relief from scorching summer temperatures is experienced over the areas,” it added.
The four-month monsoon season accounts for nearly 70 per cent of India’s annual rainfall and is crucial for agriculture, the wider economy, and replenishing reservoirs and groundwater aquifers.
The IMD has also indicated that India may receive below-normal rainfall this year. It estimated seasonal rainfall at around 80 cm, compared to the long-period average of 87 cm for 1971–2020.
It attributed the outlook to the possible emergence of El Niño conditions, which are typically associated with reduced rainfall in India.
In its May 1 update, the IMD said El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-neutral conditions over the equatorial Pacific were shifting towards El Niño conditions.
(With inputs from PTI)
