THIRUVANANTHAPURAM: The countdown to the southwest monsoon has begun, with the India Meteorological Department (IMD) indicating that the monsoon is likely to reach the Andaman and Nicobar Islands around May 16 — four days ahead of its normal onset date. According to experts, if the conditions remain favourable, monsoon could arrive early in Kerala.
IMD director Neetha K Gopal told TNIE that under normal conditions monsoon reaches the Andaman and Nicobar Islands around May 20 and Kerala around June 1.
“Though this suggests a gap of around 10 days, the interval is not fixed. During the 10-day period, fresh low-pressure systems and other weather disturbances can either accelerate or delay the monsoon’s advance,” Neetha said.
She said the movement of the monsoon is a dynamic process and does not progress at a constant pace.
“So, an early onset over the Andaman region does not necessarily mean that Kerala will receive the monsoon ahead of schedule,” she said.
According to IMD, the early advance is being aided by a low-pressure area that has formed over the Bay of Bengal. The system is expected to move northwestwards or weaken over the next few days, creating favourable conditions for the monsoon current to progress into the Andaman Sea.
IMD is expected to issue its official forecast for the onset of the southwest monsoon over Kerala on May 15. This year, the state is set to enhance weather monitoring with a new X-band Doppler Weather Radar (DWR) being installed at a cost of Rs 6 crore at Pulpally in Wayanad.
“The radar is in the final stages of installation, and we are aiming to commission it before the onset of the monsoon. Only minor work, including site clearing and final system checks, remain to be completed,” Neetha said.
The radar, being set up on the land provided by the Pazhassiraja College, is a joint initiative of IMD and the Kerala State Disaster Management Authority (KSDMA). A 30-year lease agreement was signed between IMD, KSDMA, and the college authorities. Once operational, the radar will provide high-resolution, real-time weather data, significantly improving rainfall monitoring and short-term forecasting, particularly for northern Kerala and vulnerable hilly regions.
Currently, there are two operational DWRs in Kerala -- an S-band DWR in Kochi and a C-band DWR at the Vikram Sarabhai Space Centre in Thiruvananthapuram.