BHOPAL: The Congress retained the prestigious Datia Assembly seat in northern Madhya Pradesh, winning the by-election on Monday by a margin of 6,016 votes, lower than its winning margin of over 7,700 votes in the 2023 Assembly election.
Congress candidate Kunwar Ghanshyam Singh secured 66,757 votes to defeat first-time BJP candidate Ashutosh Tiwari, who polled 60,741 votes. Azad Samaj Party (Kanshi Ram) nominee Damodar Singh Yadav finished third with 22,527 votes.
A member of Datia's erstwhile royal family, Ghanshyam Singh took the lead from the second round of counting. His lead crossed 13,000 votes by the 13th round before the BJP narrowed the gap considerably in the final two rounds, reducing the victory margin to 6,016 votes.
While the Congress celebrated the victory as a reaffirmation of the public mandate, BJP candidate Ashutosh Tiwari termed the result an occasion for introspection. Both major parties, however, appeared to have suffered due to the strong performance of ASP (KR) candidate Damodar Singh Yadav, who secured 14.3 per cent of the vote and is believed to have cut into the support base of both the Congress and the BJP.
The Congress's vote share dropped to 42.39 per cent, down from 50.34 per cent in the 2023 Assembly election, while the BJP's vote share fell to 38.57 per cent from 45.96 per cent.
Both the Congress and the BJP reportedly faced internal sabotage during the by-election.
The Congress acknowledged internal dissent by suspending its 2023 winning candidate and disqualified MLA Rajendra Bharti from the party's primary membership on Sunday night.
Leader of Opposition Umang Singhar claimed the Congress would not have won had supporters of former Home Minister Narottam Mishra not backed the party's candidate on polling day.
Interestingly, despite Narottam Mishra's long-standing political rivalry with the Congress, Ghanshyam Singh publicly praised the BJP leader during campaigning and claimed that some of Mishra's supporters were in touch with him and would support his candidature.
Reports also suggested that the BJP lost at polling booth No. 121, considered Narottam Mishra's own booth, indicating possible sabotage by his loyalists.
The Congress, too, was affected by internal dissent. Former minister PC Sharma alleged that had Rajendra Bharti not worked against the party, the Congress would have won by a much larger margin. However, party sources credited former BJP leader Abdhesh Nayak, who joined the Congress in 2023 after being denied a BJP ticket, with remaining loyal despite being denied the Congress nomination in the by-election.
According to BJP insiders, lower turnout among women voters may have adversely affected the party's prospects. Female voter turnout stood at 68.48 per cent, 5.61 percentage points lower than the male turnout of 74.09 per cent.
A senior BJP leader said women had played a decisive role in the party's victories in the 2023 Assembly election and the 2024 Lok Sabha election, but their lower participation in the Datia by-poll appeared to have hurt the party. The leader also suggested that the impact of the recent lathi-charge on students and youth during protests at Jantar Mantar in Delhi could not be entirely ruled out.
Political observers attributed the BJP's defeat partly to the inexperience of first-time candidate Ashutosh Tiwari, who, despite his organisational background, was seen as remaining under Narottam Mishra's shadow throughout the campaign.
The BJP also reportedly failed to manage polling booths effectively and misread local caste dynamics. It underestimated the electoral impact of ASP (KR) candidate Damodar Singh Yadav, who appears to have dented both the BJP's and the Congress's vote share.
The result is expected to strengthen the position of Madhya Pradesh Congress president Jitu Patwari, who campaigned extensively in the constituency, while dealing a setback to state BJP chief Hemant Khandelwal in his first major electoral test as state president.
Political observers said the defeat exposed weaknesses in the BJP's local organisation, including its failure to build an alternative structure independent of Narottam Mishra's influence and its inability to persuade former leader Abdhesh Nayak to return to the party.
The by-poll defeat also serves as a warning for Chief Minister Mohan Yadav. Analysts believe a section of Yadav voters may have shifted to ASP (KR) candidate Damodar Singh Yadav instead of supporting the BJP. It is also the BJP's second consecutive by-election defeat in the Gwalior-Chambal region in less than two years.
The by-election has also renewed speculation over the political future of senior BJP leader and three-time Datia MLA Narottam Mishra. Although he campaigned for the BJP candidate, reports suggested many of his supporters remained inactive or tacitly backed the Congress.
As the Congress's victory became evident, Mishra indicated that his active political journey had come to an end, saying he no longer sought any position and only wished to continue serving the BJP as a party worker. With the Uttar Pradesh Assembly elections due in early 2027, however, political observers believe the BJP may still rely on his organisational and electoral management skills.
