BHUBANESWAR: The frenzy over possibility of a tropical cyclone off the east coast built up on Monday after a low pressure area was formed over Tenasserim Coast and adjoining Andaman Sea.
The system is expected to concentrate into a well-marked low pressure area during the next 24 hours before intensifying into a depression.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) did not issue any forecast beyond the 48 hours and said it is too early to make any prediction about the system’s development and projected path. The Regional Specialised Meteorological Centre - Tropical Cyclones, New Delhi too maintained the same line and said the probability of cyclogensis (chances of turning into a depression) over the next 72 hours remains high.
The low pressure currently remained at a distance of 1,350 km south-east of Gopalpur. The IMD sources said there is a possibility of it turning into a cyclonic storm and head towards north Andhra Pradesh coast by October 11-12. This will engage the attention of Odisha because the southern districts will be affected too.
“We can make a formal prediction about the system’s movement and strength by October 8/9 because before that there are too many factors which could decide the fate of the system,” Director, IMD, Odisha, Sarat Chandra Sahu said.
Apart from the sea surface temperature, humidity and oceanic current flow, there are smaller weather systems which may decide what form the low pressure will take.
There is already a cyclonic circulation near Andaman Sea while another system is lying close to Sri Lanka. Before the low pressure builds up, these two systems would have to subside first and the IMD has been keeping a close watch on it.
However, there were different models, national and international, which made different predictions. One model stated that the system could strengthen over the sea while another predicted that it could gather strength just before the eastern coast of the country. As of now, if the system builds up systematically and keeps its track intact, it might head towards north Andhra Pradesh coast by October 11-12.
While the IMD kept the Odisha Government posted about the system, the latter kept a close watch but refrained from issuing any alert to the districts. “We are monitoring the development. As of now, there is no need to panic,” Deputy Relief Commissioner Pravat Mohapatra said.