BHUBANESWAR: Although the heat wave has shown signs of subsiding, the monsoon relief could still be a little far away. With the northern limit of southwest monsoon remaining sluggish so far, its advancement to Kerala on May 30, as predicted earlier, remains suspect.
Although the Peninsula India has been witnessing moderate rainfall activity for the last several days with conditions remaining cloudy, it is not sufficient to qualify for monsoon onset. In fact, the Northern Limit of Monsoon (NLM) has slowed down in its movement over Sri Lanka on its way to Kerala.
Since monsoon has a huge economic repercussion, the India Meteorological Department has been keeping mum on its exact status and progress to Kerala. Besides, in absence of any significant weather system in Bay of Bengal as well as the Andaman Sea, the advancement appears tardy.
Normally, the southwest monsoon arrives at Kerala on June 1 and this year, it was expected to hit the coast on May 30 with a three-day deviation. “The IMD may just pass off the current showers as onset but any significant rainfall activity is unlikely as of now,” said sources in the Ministry of Earth Sciences.
What is significant though is the likelihood of formation of a system over southern Arabian Sea by June 6 and its movement will be keenly monitored by the meteorologists as well as policy makers.
“If the system heads in a north-east direction, it would pull the monsoon current and Andhra and Odisha could get pre-monsoon showers during the period,” the sources pointed out.
However, if it moves in a north-westerly direction, there is possibility of it sucking away the moisture flow and in the process, weakening it. That, sources said, could push the monsoon arrival a little behind schedule.
Meanwhile, on Thursday, the day temperatures dropped across the State but Bhawanipatna remained the hottest place with the mercury reading 46.5 degree Celsius. So far, 108 persons have reportedly died due to sunstroke but the official figure stands at 17. The weather office said, heat wave conditions will prevail over some parts of Odisha but the intensity is likely to decline.