BHUBANESWAR: The weather system predicted to form over the north Andaman Sea by Tuesday may or may not build into a significant system but it could certainly throw cold water on Diwali festivities in the State.
Despite a lot of speculation about a strong system building up based on GFS models, there is no clear word yet on the cyclogenesis of the system. At least, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) had adopted a wait-and-watch policy.
Coastal districts of Odisha will, however, witness rainfall activity beginning October 19 under the influence of the cyclonic circulation set to generate over the Andaman Sea and its neighbourhood around October 18, said the IMD.
It is expected to move west-northwestwards towards the west-central and adjoining southwest Bay of Bengal and intensify into a low-pressure area around Thursday. There is a moderate probability that the low-pressure area will move west-northwestwards and concentrate into a depression over the west-central Bay of Bengal at the beginning of the October 21-27 week.
This could mean that Diwali and its run-up could get rained out. Firecracker sellers and festive celebrations may be impacted by the system.“Odisha is expected to receive rainfall under the influence of low pressure. However, details like the system’s intensification, its path and its impact on the State will be ascertained in the next two to three days,” said IMD DG, Dr Mrutyunjay Mohapatra.
Climatologically, the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea normally experience five cyclones annually - one over the Arabian Sea and four over the Bay of Bengal. Considering the seasonal frequency, it has a bimodal characteristic for genesis with the April-June quarter producing one and October-December (post-monsoon) generating four such systems.
The national weather forecaster has predicted rainfall over coastal districts along with Keonjhar, Mayurbhanj, Dhenkanal, Kandhamal, Rayagada, Malkangiri and Koraput from Wednesday onwards. Similarly, Mayurbhanj, Rayagada, Malkangiri and Koraput districts may get showers on Thursday.