BHUBANESWAR : The first low pressure in the post-monsoon season is likely to form over the Bay of Bengal around October 13, on the run-up to the Dussehra festival.
In its extended range outlook, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said an upper air cyclonic circulation may emerge over north Andaman Sea around October 12. Under its influence, a low-pressure area is likely to form over Andaman Sea. There is also a low probability of cyclogenesis, formation of a depression, over central parts of south Bay of Bengal and adjoining central Bay of Bengal around October 15, it added.
However, there is no unanimity among models over the system’s further intensification. The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) model indicated the system’s west-northwestwards movement and intensification into a low-pressure area over south-east Bay of Bengal and adjoining Andaman Islands around October 13.
The system may further intensify into a depression and then take form of a deep depression over west-central Bay of Bengal around October 15. This could mean that the beginning of the Durga Puja festivities could witness showers this year.
Usually, October is a highly favorable month for cyclones in the Bay of Bengal because of warm sea surface temperatures and low vertical wind shear but it is too early to predict the system’s path and intensification.
Experts are keeping a close watch on various models to ascertain more details about the anticipated system. In the past, Durga Puja has been rained out or experienced rainfall on several occasions.
