BHUBANESWAR: A fresh low pressure area is likely to form over the Bay of Bengal on Friday, fuelling speculations about its intensity as well as course if the weather system intensifies given the current conditions.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Wednesday said, an upper air cyclonic circulation over Gulf of Thailand, adjoining Thailand and Myanmar emerged in north Andaman Sea. It is very likely to move west-northwestwards and under its influence a low-pressure area may form over south-east and adjoining east-central Bay of Bengal around Friday. The system is likely to move northwestwards and intensify, the national weather forecaster said. However, the IMD is yet to forecast the anticipated system’s further intensity and path. Director of Bhubaneswar Meteorological Centre Manorama Mohanty said, “The system’s intensity and path will be ascertained once the low pressure forms.”
While more clarity about the system will emerge in the coming days, most of the weather models suggest the development of a low pressure area except European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) which indicated its further intensification into a depression around October 28 and movement towards Odisha coast.
Usually, October is a highly favourable month for cyclones in the Bay of Bengal because of warm sea surface temperatures and low vertical wind shear, said weather experts.
AccuWeather International Meteorologist Jason Nicholls took to X and expressed similar views stating there was a good chance for a cyclone to develop in the Bay of Bengal towards Andaman Islands late this week or weekend. He suggested the system’s impact trajectory could be from Andhra Pradesh to Odisha and West Bengal around the middle of next week.
Nicholls’s path prediction was supported by Chennai based regional weather tracker, Parthan, who said the systems usually forming in October during an El Nino year moved westwards most of the times. The upcoming system too suggests more westwards movement from the place of its genesis, he added.
Weather experts are keeping a close eye on the system as the Bay of Bengal produces some of the strong weather systems and particularly during the month of October.
