BHUBANESWAR: A powerful storm building over the Bay of Bengal is likely to head towards the north Andhra Pradesh and south Odisha coast on October 28, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Friday.
The national forecaster did not specify the system’s peak intensity but said it could continue to intensify after reaching the cyclonic storm stage by October 26 (Monday).
Once it reaches the cyclone category, the storm will be named Arnab, as suggested by Bangladesh.
IMD director general Mrutyunjay Mohapatra said the low-pressure area over the east-central and adjoining south-east Bay of Bengal would intensify into a deep depression on Sunday and further into a cyclonic storm by Monday morning. Thereafter, it would continue to move west-northwestwards and intensify further until Wednesday morning. It is expected to approach the north Andhra Pradesh and south Odisha coast on Wednesday morning, he said.
Following the IMD’s forecast, the Odisha government alerted districts likely to be affected by the storm. Revenue and Disaster Management minister Suresh Pujari said the government was closely monitoring the weather system and asked the districts to remain prepared for any emergency arising from heavy rainfall and gusty winds.
Storm trackers and numerical weather prediction models suggested that the storm could intensify into a severe cyclonic storm. Some models indicated further intensification, with the system likely to affect the eastern coast. However, an anti-cyclone and a ridge to the north of the system could influence its track and potential landfall location. There is speculation that the storm could cross the coast between Visakhapatnam and Machilipatnam, in the Kakinada region.
However, Mohapatra said a clearer picture of the cyclone’s intensity would emerge over the next couple of days. Under the system’s influence, wind speeds are expected to reach 70-80 kmph, gusting to 90 kmph, from Monday onwards. Wind speeds are likely to increase gradually until Wednesday morning.
Mohapatra said rainfall along the east coast, particularly in north Andhra Pradesh, Odisha and West Bengal, would begin on Monday, with heavy to very heavy rainfall expected in the region from Tuesday. Extremely heavy rainfall exceeding 30 cm could occur at isolated places in north Andhra Pradesh and Odisha on Wednesday and Thursday, he said.
As the system develops, weather agencies are closely monitoring the prevailing environmental conditions. Private weather forecaster Skymet said, “The system is over the open ocean surface and placed in favourable environmental conditions. Models are in favour of the system’s speedy development. The potential for cyclogenesis and the system to become the first storm of the season in the next 72 hours is high.”
Skymet pointed out that, based on past storm tracks, north coastal Andhra Pradesh and south coastal Odisha were most susceptible to a direct hit from the cyclone.
The Joint Typhoon Warning Center also indicated a strong possibility of the system developing into a storm.
“Environmental conditions include low vertical wind shear (5 to 10 knots), warm sea surface temperatures (29°C to 30°C) and moderate equatorward outflow aloft. Global deterministic and ensemble models agree on the gradual development of the system. It is expected to move generally northwestward as it consolidates,” it stated.
