In a move that instantly changed the numerical and, thus, political equation in Tamil Nadu, Assembly Speaker P Dhanapal disqualified the 18 MLAs who had turned against the 'Edappadi' K Palaniswami government on Monday morning.
These MLAs had sided with ousted deputy general secretary TTV Dhinakaran in his factional feud against Palaniswami, and had even handed over letters withdrawing support to the government to Governor Ch Vidyasagar Rao.
That was about a month ago on August 22. After attempts to win them over failed, the ruling faction had begun efforts to expel the rebels so that the government would have a simple majority in case of a trust vote - a demand raised by all in the opposition and also the rebels. On Monday, the speaker disqualified them under the provisions of the anti-defection law.
With this, the strength of the State Assembly has come down to 215 from 234. This puts a simple majority at 107 - 'Edappadi' government has this number.
Immediately after the decision was announced, Dhinakaran loyalist P Vetrivel MLA said they would move the court seeking remedy.
The High Court of Madras is already hearing a petition related to this after the principal opposition DMK approached the court over holding vote of confidence.
During the hearing, it's counsel Kapil Sibal had mentioned the risk of disqualification of the rebels, which would skew the numbers in favour of the ruling party. The advocate appearing for the MLAs shared this fear, which prompted the bench to ask if any action was contemplated on them. However, Advocate General Vivek Narayan maintained that it was the prerogative of the speaker, and said the chair had begun the process but refused to give any guarantee one way or the other.
Also, while this would help Palaniswami government in the immediate term, it would lead to a bypoll which it can ill-afford. Sources say these disqualifications could even be a strategic way of removing the rebels during trust vote, as the Speaker can cancel the order before Election Commission gets into the process of notifying the polls.
The MLAs who have been disqualified are: Thangathamizhselvan (Andipatti), R Murugan (Harur), S Mariappan Kennedy (Manamadurai), K Kathirkamu (Periyakulam), C Jayandhi Padmanabhan (Gudiyatham), P Palaniappan (Pappireddipatti), V Senthil Balaji (Aravakurichi), S Muthiah (Paramakudi), P Vetrivel (Perambur), NG Parthiban (Sholingur), M Kothandapani (Tiruporur), TA Elumalai (Ponnamallee), M Rengasamy (Thanjavur), R Thangadurai (Nilakottai), R Balasubramani (ambur), SG Subramanian (Sathur), R Sudarraj (Ottapidaram) and K Uma Maheswari (Vilathikulam).