CHENNAI: The vote share of different parties in 2016 polls in the now 20 vacant MLA constituencies shows that besides the major players, a few other parties may greatly influence the by poll outcome.
For instance, PMK, which is maintaining equal distance from both AIADMK and DMK, had a considerable vote share in at least six of these 20 seats.
The PMK got votes higher than the victory margin in five of the 20 seats in 2016 Assembly elections. It came second, even beating DMK, at Pappireddypatti constituency, but lost by a margin of just 12,713 votes.
Interestingly, the party contested 2016 Assembly polls alone. In Poonamallee constituency, PMK secured 15,827 votes, while the victory margin in the constituency was only 11,763. The other constituencies where the party secured considerable votes are Perambur, Thiruporur, Sholingur and Harur.
Though now the constituents of People's Welfare Front are now with DMK, its not clear how much votes they can bring to DMK. Such a transfer of votes was not witnessed in the RK Nagar bypolls.
Another party that holds considerable influence in certain pockets is Krishnaswamy's Puthiya Thamizhagam. The party has an influence in southern districts, especially in the constituencies of Ottapidaram, Paramakudi, Nilakkottai and Periyakulam. Krishnaswamy himself lost the Ottapidaram seat in 2016 just by 493 votes. Political observers say since the bypolls would be a multi-corner contest, even minor swing of votes could alter the outcome of the polls.
Many of these 20 seats were strongholds of the ruling AIADMK. For instance, in Andipatti and Vilathikulam, the party has won all elections since 2001. In Paramakudi also, except a 2006 DMK victory, the constituency has largely sent only AIADMK members to the Assembly.
Even Thanjavur, close to the late DMK leader M Karunanidhi's hometown, AIADMK won in the last two elections consecutively. But the outcome of the bypolls would be interesting since both TTV Dhinakaran''s AMMK and the ruling AIADMK would be targeting the same vote share.