CHENNAI: The results of by-elections to be held in 18 constituencies, along with the Lok Sabha elections, on April 18 will determine the fate of the State government. While the results of by-elections in the recent decades had mostly gone in favour of the ruling parties, an analysis of the by-elections results since 1957 shows that prior to 1991, both ruling and opposition parties had almost equal chances of winning.
For example, M G Ramachandran’s newly launched AIADMK won the bypoll in the Dindugal parliamentary constituency and the Coimbatore West Assembly constituency in 1973 when the DMK was the ruling party in the State. The electorate had given similar victories to the opposition parties before the emergence of AIADMK leader J Jayalalithaa and DMK leader M Karunanidhi as the opposite poles in Tami Nadu’s political scenario.
Political observers say that the trend of ruling party always winning bypoll is mainly due to the mentality of the electorate in recent decades that an MLA from the ruling party could bring better amenities to their constituencies. But what is interesting is that whenever the bypolls were conducted along with the Lok Sabha polls, the electorate had mostly manage to overcome the preference for the ruling parties and handed over victories to the opposition parties too.
“The mindset of the people was to favour the ruling party to ensure at least their basic amenities and have their long-pending demands addressed. Hence, they supported the ruling parties,” said T Koodalarasan, a veteran journalist. Will the same factor help the ruling AIADMK this time too? “It may be so since the bypolls are to be held now in several constituencies,” he said.
Also, in recent decades, in the Assembly by-elections held along with the Lok Sabha polls, the opposition parties had secured victories twice. In 1999, opposition AIADMK candidate R Viswnanthan won the bypoll to the Natham Assembly constituency when the bypoll coincided with the Lok Sabha polls. Similarly, DMK candidate V Ganesh won the Mangalore Assembly constituency in 2004 bypoll, which also took place along with the Lok Sabha polls.
The AIADMK was ruling in the state then.R Viswnanthan won in the bypolls for the Natham assembly constituency when the bypoll coincided with the LS polls. Similarly, the DMK candidate V Ganesh won the Mangalore assembly constituency in 2004 bypolls, which also took place along with the Lok Sabha polls. AIADMK was ruling at the state then.