CHENNAI: The year 2024 can be a make-or-break year for TN parties across the political spectrum. AIADMK general secretary Edappadi K Palaniswami and BJP state president K Annamalai have stabilised their positions within their parties in 2023, but they have to prove they could win elections.
On the other hand, the ruling DMK is currently grappling with a myriad of political challenges, chiefly stemming from the arrest and conviction of ministers involved in ED cases, disproportionate assets cases, and I-T raids. Despite these challenges, there’s a belief within the party that a change in central government could offer a respite from these troubles.
While the AIADMK has strong roots in Tamil Nadu, the BJP is struggling hard to find ground for its anti-Dravidian narrative. The immediate opportunity available for both the parties to prove their strength is the Lok Sabha election. While the parties are moving heaven and earth to win a sizeable number of seats in the LS polls, both AIADMK and the BJP may need to change their strategies to realise their goals.
Veteran journalist Tharasu Shyam said, “Since AIADMK is a well-established political party that has ruled the state many times and has a solid vote bank, Palaniswami has certain advantages inherited from the party’s legacy. For those who wish to vote against the DMK, the first choice could be the AIADMK.
As long as the Two Leaves symbol is with the AIADMK led by Palaniswami, there are chances that Palaniswami could transform himself into a winner from the position of a contender. BJP does not have that advantage. If Palaniswami succeeds in cobbling up an alliance of at least certain political parties with proven vote- bank, he can take the fight to the DMK and shed the perception of being a leader who hastened AIADMK’s electoral debacle.”
“Annamalai has managed to project himself as the leader of the state BJP efficiently and has made a name for himself. But whether that popularity could be converted into votes is a big question since there were past examples,” he said.
Both Vaiko and Vijayakant tried their best to emerge as an alternative force to the two Dravidian majors. They were able to change the game to a significant extent. But they were unable to ultimately win the game. The simple reason for their inability was the ‘alliance politics’ in Tamil Nadu. “Annamalai cannot shine as an individual leader because of BJP’s ‘popularity’ in the state and it needs an alliance to win the elections in Tamil Nadu,” he added.
Senior journalist P Sigamani is of the view that if AIADMK remains divided, it could cost the party dearly in the elections. “Though AIADMK repeatedly claims that it has come out of the BJP alliance, AIADMK leaders have been refraining from criticising the Modi government. For example, though the Modi government has yet to allocate funds for flood relief works in Tamil Nadu, AIADMK is only criticising DMK, not the BJP government. This kind of ‘cautious approach towards the BJP’ gives room for the speculations that they could come together after the 2024 Lok Sabha elections are over. Besides, AIADMK is yet to regain the credibility of minority communities,” he added.
Sigamani also pointed out that there is a strong perception among the public that the DMK-led alliance is strong in Tamil Nadu and has winning prospects, whereas AIADMK is yet to gain that perception. BJP in Tamil Nadu is trying to utilise caste equations for the elections. Also, the party was able to increase its support base among the middle classes and the religiously oriented people. “This will not increase the winning prospects of BJP in the state since the party is yet to make the people believe that it would protect the interests of the Tamil Nadu people,” Sigamani said.
“One of the biggest challenges to the DMK is getting exemption from NEET. Firm assurances from CM MK Stalin and Udhayanidhi Stalin have made this a matter of prestige for the party,” said a DMK functionary.
Journalist and political observer Srinivas Sharma told TNIE, “If the INDIA bloc fails to seize power from the BJP, turbulent times may lie ahead for the DMK. The future political trajectory and governance of DMK seem contingent on the outcome of the parliamentary elections.”
Sensing possible adverse impact the party may face if BJP returns to power at the centre, Stalin has been frequently advocating that only a change of power at the centre would save Tamil Nadu. Apart from the BJP threat, other challenges confronting the DMK are its other unfulfilled poll promises such as implementation of old pension scheme for government employees, regularising the jobs of temporary employees in various government sectors, including teaching faculty positions in schools and colleges, implementing 10.5% reservation for Vanniyar community, among others.
